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宏观分析

Interactive Brokers - Webinar - Global Beta Advisors - Who's In The Market's Driver's Seat?


Justin Lowry Chief Investment Officer, Global Beta Advisors

Tue, Feb 26, 2019 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM EST

In this session, Global Beta examines the drivers of recent market volatility and what history has taught us.  Global Beta also looks forward into 2019 and examines what investors should expect and where to look for opportunities.  Global Beta believes it is important that investors educate themselves on the rotation of the market and not allow emotion to play a factor with their money.

Sponsored by Global Beta Advisors

Can’t join us live? Register and we'll send you a recording after the webinar.

Interactive Brokers LLC is a member of NYSE, FINRA, SIPC

Register Here

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The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22821




宏观分析

New Constructs - The Real Earnings Season Starts Now: Finding Gold in Footnotes


Corporate earnings season may be winding down, but the real earnings season – annual 10-K filing season – starts today.

Corporate earnings announcements provide investors with limited and often misleading data. Only by reading all of the financial footnotes, which are only included in annual 10-K reports, can investors analyze true profits.

In the few 10-Ks already filed in 2019, the footnotes make one stock look better than what the headline numbers show.

 

Analyzing Footnotes Enables Us to Reverse Distortions in Reported Earnings and Valuations

Figure 1 shows that GAAP net income growth over the past five years has almost no impact on the change in market cap for companies in the S&P 500.[1]

Figure 1: GAAP Net Income Growth and Change in Market Cap Over the Past Five Years

 

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings.

Note that Red Hat (RHT) and Dish Network (DISH) have grown GAAP net income by a similar amount over the past five years (58% for RHT, 67% for DISH). However, RHT’s market cap has nearly tripled, while DISH’s has fallen by more than half. When accounting for changes in share count, RHT’s stock is up 206% over the past five years, while DISH is down 45%.

GAAP earnings growth for both companies is distorted due to the impact of the new tax law on TTM earnings. When we strip out accounting distortions, RHT grew after-tax operating profit (NOPAT) by 123% over the past five years, while DISH grew NOPAT by just 8%.

In addition, GAAP earnings ignore changes to the balance sheet. RHT employs a capital-light model that helped it improve ROIC from 8% in 2014 to 15% TTM and generate $800 million (3% of market cap) in free cash flow over the same time.

Meanwhile, DISH has spent billions of dollars on wireless spectrum rights that have yet to produce any significant value. As a result, ROIC has fallen from 15% in 2014 to 6% TTM, and DISH has burned through $11.6 billion (84% of market cap) in negative free cash flow over that time.

Cash is a fact. Earnings are an opinion. Investors who base their investment decisions on accounting earnings put their portfolios at risk. Advisors who make investment recommendations without performing proper due diligence are not fulfilling their fiduciary responsibilities.

 

[1] Figure 1 excludes companies for which we don’t have data going back 5 years or whose GAAP net income 5 years prior is negative. After these exclusions, the regression analysis contains 467 companies.

Click here to download the complete PDF of this report: The Real Earnings Season Starts Now: Finding Gold in Footnotes

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This article originally published on February 19, 2019.

Disclosure: David Trainer, Sam McBride, and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.

Follow us on Twitter (#filingseasonfinds), FacebookLinkedIn, and StockTwits for real-time alerts on all our research. 

About New Constructs

Our stock rating methodology instantly informs you of the quality of the business and the fairness of the stock’s valuation. We do the diligence on earnings quality and valuation so you don’t have to.

In-depth risk/reward analysis underpins our stock rating. Our stock rating methodology grades every stock according to what we believe are the 5 most important criteria for assessing the quality of a stock. Each grade reflects the balance of potential risk and reward of buying that stock. Our analysis results in the 5 ratings described below. Very Attractive and Attractive correspond to a "Buy" rating, Very Unattractive and Unattractive correspond to a "Sell" rating, while Neutral corresponds to a "Hold" rating.

Cutting-edge technology, featured by Harvard Business School, enables us to scale our unconflicted & comprehensive fundamental research across 10,000+ stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds. Learn more about New Constructs. Get a free trial. See what Barron’s has to say about our research.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from New Constructs, LLC and is being posted with New Constructs, LLC’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or New Constructs, LLC and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22820




固定收益

SL Advisors - U.S. National Debt: The Bond Market Doesn't Care


For almost my entire 38-year career in finance, we’ve worried about the U.S. federal deficit. Someone recently asked me if we should still be worried. You’d think that it should have been a problem by now, but it’s not. Thirty-year U.S. Treasury bonds yielding 3% don’t look enticing, but evidently a lot of investors feel differently. Low as they are, U.S. yields are substantially higher than Germany, whose 30-year bonds yield a paltry 0.73%.

U.S. publicly-held federal debt to GDP rose sharply following the 2008 financial crisis. Circumstances justified a temporary spike to provide fiscal stimulus, but instead it’s continued to grow. Nonetheless, rates just can’t rise — even though the Fed has stopped buying bonds, others have stepped in. Short-term rates might even have peaked, following Fed chairman Jay Powell’s communication missteps in December.

The deficit doesn’t seem to matter. As President Reagan joked, “I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself.”

This view is easily criticized as needlessly reckless with our country’s future. Markets are forward-looking, and most observers are pessimistic about our long-term fiscal outlook. But yields don’t reflect that. Since our current indebtedness is clearly manageable, it’s worth considering alternative outcomes.

Excessive debt was part of the reason for the 2008 crash. As the economy recovered, the U.S. pursued a stealth devaluation by maintaining negative real interest rates. It’s a well-worn path, and while Ben Bernanke didn’t articulate it as such, treasury yields were so low that buyers suffered a loss of purchasing power after taxes and inflation. Even today there’s hardly any return, although a large proportion of the holders aren’t taxable.

Populism adds an interesting dimension. Let’s suppose that U.S. bond yields rise to more fully reflect the sorry state of fiscal policy. Increased interest expense crowds out other expenditure. The Congressional Budget Office expects net interest expense to double by 2024 and almost triple by 2029. They assume ten-year yields will rise to around 3.7%. The U.S. Debt Clock has some interesting figures.

If the buyers of our debt demand higher rates as compensation for the outlook, interest expense will rise even more. This will crowd out other priorities and add further to the deficit. Stocks would weaken; growth would slow. We can all imagine how a populist-leaning president, like Trump, would respond. Rather than focus on cutting domestic spending, foreign buyers would be warned to keep investing. The U.S. might threaten a withholding tax on foreign holdings of our debt, effectively lowering the rate. It would constitute a default. Who seriously thinks Trump would blink at the prospect?

It needn’t be a Republican. Early Democrat presidential contenders are similarly populist. How would a president in the mold of AOC (gulp) react to foreign creditors slowing the Green New Deal’s hugely expensive re-engineering of America’s economy?

The moral requirement to repay debt has been steadily weakening for years. Federal debt represents an obligation passed down from one generation to the next. It’s easy to see the political appeal in questioning why the country should repay money that was spent on entitlements by a cohort long gone. The bond buyers should have known better. In 2013, in Bonds Are Not Forever; The Crisis Facing Fixed Income Investors, I expanded on this line of thinking. It’s no less relevant today.

Such problems are in the future but should be well within the time frame of a thirty-year bond investor. Today’s yield curve suggests they’re not worried at the prospect. They should be. Publicly held U.S. federal debt is $16TN. Another $6TN is owed to other agencies, half of which is Social Security. When you owe $16TN, it’s their problem too.

 

SL Advisors is the sub-advisor to the Catalyst MLP & Infrastructure Fund.  To learn more about the Fund, please click here.

SL Advisors is also the advisor to an ETF (USAIETF.com)

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Please click here for important legal disclosures.

 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from SL Advisors LLC and is being posted with SL Advisors LLC’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or SL Advisors LLC and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22819




固定收益

Interactive Brokers - Emerging Markets: U.S. Dollar Bonds Abound, Sovereign and Corporate Debt Deluge with Fed's Tightening Policy on Pause


Issuers of U.S. dollar-denominated government and corporate bonds based in certain emerging market countries have been generally taking advantage of the ultra-low interest rate landscape to sell new deals.

To date in February, the governments of Uzbekistan, Turkey, Indonesia and Egypt, for example, have each contributed to the recent rise in the volume of primary market sales, while the Federal Reserve appears to have shifted gears to a more dovish stance on monetary policy.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s policymaking body, had decided at its January 30th meeting to leave the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25-2.50%, and noted it will be “patient” as it determines what future adjustments may be necessary.

Many in the financial markets had interpreted the FOMC’s statement as a sign that the central bank will refrain from further rate hikes and other “quantitative tightening” measures throughout 2019.

Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies, noted that the Fed is most likely “going to slow the rate normalization process and be more data dependent going forward as policymakers probe their way toward a neutral fed funds rate estimate of 3%.”

He added that due to “the combination of the effect of the trade war on commodities markets in general since mid-2018, and the related weakness in energy prices, inflation is very likely to hold below the Fed’s 2% target at least into Q2 this year.  Consequently, it is likely to be several months before the FOMC resumes the rate normalization process with the next rate hike.”  

Against this landscape, issuers of U.S. dollar debt have continued to roll out blockbuster deals, with buyers continuing to line up for the yield offered in the primary market.

Among the long list of deals to date in 2019, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (NYSE: BUD) priced US$15.5bn worth of new debt in six parts to decent demand, and Altria Group (NYSE: MO) fetched more than US$50bn in orders for its US$11.5bn, seven-part sale.

Prices of Anheuser-Busch InBev’s 4.15% notes due 2025, and Altria’s 5.8% 2039s, were each up well-over 1.1% intraday Wednesday, according to the IBKR Trader Workstation.

Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note – at 2.652% intraday Wednesday – continues to trade below its 20-day moving average at 2.686%, with the 50-DMA at 2.732%, according to analysts at Fibocall.

 

Tallied in the trillions

Indeed, with the Federal Reserve keeping rates low, most bond issuers continue to reap benefits from the low-cost borrowing.

According to SIFMA researchers and recent data sourced by Thomson Reuters, in the ten-year period from 2008-2018, investment-grade and high yield corporate debt issuance has soared more than 61% and 139%, respectively, over the ten years from 1997-2007. On a combined basis, the past ten years have seen nearly US$14trn in new deals come to market, an increase of over 71.5% from the prior decade.

Moreover, the issuance continues to see healthy demand, in large part as improvements in the U.S. economy have been helping lure investors to the yield offered in the primary market – especially those buyers who have been priced out of their local markets or have a dearth of available paper.

The yields on Japanese and German government bonds were last in the area of -0.046% and 0.092%, respectively.

For the week ended February 13, Thomson Reuters/Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported a net inflow of roughly US$1.89bn into investment-grade corporate bond funds, while high yield funds reported net inflows of US$728m. Risk appetite also appears to have increased, as emerging market equity funds saw US$411m of inflows, and international and global debt funds posted net inflows of US$232m.

Ron Quigley, head of fixed income syndicate at Mischler Financial, characterized Tuesday’s US$10bn worth of new investment-grade corporate bond sales as deals that got done by syndicate managers for issuers, and “investors bought the paper. That’s it.”

He also pointed out that more than 45% of this week’s expected volume priced on the first day back from the long holiday weekend.

 

Risk appetite returns

In the meantime, some emerging market countries have decided to exploit the favorable rate environment, and relative calm in the financial markets, to sell new debt.

To date in 2019, The Arab Republic of Egypt priced US$4bn worth of sovereign bonds in a three-part private placement, the Turkish government sold US$2bn of three-year sukuk at a price to yield 5.8%, Indonesia priced a total US$2bn of five- and 10-year sukuk, and The Republic of Uzbekistan debuted US$1bn of evenly split five- and 10-year notes at 4.75% and 5.375%, respectively.

The offerings fell squarely in the higher risk category.

Mood’s Investors Service, for example, placed a first-time, long-term issuer rating on the Government of Uzbekistan at a junk status ‘B1’.

Uzbekistan is largely beset by low income levels, with a government that remains heavily involved in the economy, notably in the banking sector, as well as in mining and energy.

Moody’s analysts Martin Petch and Marie Diron noted that under Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, “the country has embarked on a number of economic, trade, and foreign policy reforms, with the aim of liberalizing prices and introducing competition in a number of sectors.

“However, Uzbekistan lacks a full range of monetary and fiscal policy tools to preserve macroeconomic stability and offset potential shocks to the economy during the reform process. The transmission mechanism for monetary policy is weak as a significant share of bank lending remains directed by the government and credit risk is not priced.

“Fiscal policy has no track record of adjusting expenditure and planning revenue measures in response to the economic cycle and in adherence to long-term fiscal and social objectives.”

 

Up in price

With the markets apparently enjoying a period of calm, and amid a general uptick in risk appetite, some of the emerging market sovereign notes have risen in value since their issuance.

The yield on Turkey’s 5.8% sovereign notes due February 2022, for instance, was bid at a premium of US$100.093 intraday Wednesday, and Indonesia’s 4.45% bonds maturing February 2029 were at US$100.149, according to Bloomberg.

Briefing.com’s chief market analyst Patrick O’Hare noted that the Federal Reserve “hacked into the market in early January to write a new line of code that told the market to settle down with its volatile behavior and to start rallying. 

“It was a pretty simple line, too, that said the central bank will be patient with its approach to policy and won't hesitate to alter the balance sheet normalization process, if necessary.

“Nothing was more effective in re-booting the system than that new line of code.”

Investors will have an opportunity Wednesday to glean more details into the FOMC’s decision and policymaking path, when it releases its minutes for the January meeting at 2:00PM ET.

Participants in the bond market will likely expect to see more U.S. dollar-denominated deals as rates remain low, including from Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S., which is set to unveil at least US$500m worth of new ‘BB’-rated debt for refinancing purposes.

In the meantime, select the Event Calendar option in the IBKR Trader Workstation for a full list of U.S. and global corporate events and earnings, dividend schedules, economic data, IPOs and more.

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The author does not hold any positions in the financial instruments referenced in the materials provided.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22822




宏观分析

PIMCO - Core CPI May Tick Up Before Moderating in the Second Half - By Tiffany Wilding


The decline in oil prices continues to weigh on headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which fell 0.3 percentage point to 1.6% year-over-year in January. However, core CPI (which excludes energy and food prices) held steady at 2.2% year-over-year, with support from normalization in retail prices after holiday discounting late last year.

We expect core CPI to pick up somewhat further in the next few months as rising input costs from the various import tariffs continue to support prices, before moderating to 2.1% in the second half of the year. We view the still-modest inflationary pressures as supportive of the Federal Reserve’s recent pivot toward a more patient and cautious approach to further rate hikes.

 

Retail goods rebound

January’s stronger price gains were concentrated in core retail goods, as is typical for this time of year. Seasonal factors have not fully caught up to the evolution in the holiday discounting cycle – i.e., more consumption shifting into the earlier part of the fourth quarter as retailers, including e-commerce, use promotions to get a jump start on the holidays. This has resulted in weaker retail goods inflation in November and December, followed by a reversal in January and February. Consistent with these patterns, prices across various retail goods categories were stronger in the January print. Most notably, apparel, household furnishings, and various electronics were all firmer month-over-month in January, offsetting weaker prints late last year.

 

Tariffs create noise

Inflation on goods subject to the 10% tariffs on Chinese imports still appeared noisy after surging for many of these categories in December. Sporting goods and sewing machines, for example, appear to have normalized, with modest declines in January after outsize price gains the prior month, but gains in other categories, like toys, were still strong. Despite the noise, we expect some further modest pass-through of the tariffs to consumer prices in the next few months.

Meanwhile, new car prices rose solidly for the first time in six months, likely driven by higher input prices, including increases arising from the steel tariffs. At the same time, used car prices stabilized at 0.1% month-over-month after volatile swings in this category late last year following a CPI methodology change.

Elsewhere, core services inflation remained stable. Owners’ equivalent rents (OER) firmed somewhat from last month, but the year-over-year rate was stable at 3.2%, where it has remained for the better part of the past two years.

 

Bottom line? We believe tariffs will support a limited acceleration in core CPI in the coming months before moderating to 2.1% in the second half of 2019. The still-modest inflationary pressures offer support for the Fed’s more patient approach to rate hikes.

 

Tiffany Wilding is a PIMCO economist focusing on the U.S. and is a regular contributor to the PIMCO Blog.

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Originally Posted on February 13, 2019

PIMCO is one of the world’s premier fixed investment managers. Since our founding in 1971 in Newport Beach, California, we have grown into a global organization with more than 2,150+ professionals united in a single purpose: creating opportunities for our clients in every environment. Our focus on excellence and our short- and long-term track record has encouraged institutions, financial advisors and millions of individual investors to entrust us with their assets. Visit PIMCO’s blog.

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This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. © 2018 PIMCO PIMCO Investments LLC, distributor, 1633 Broadway, New York, NY 10019, is a company of PIMCO.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from PIMCO and is being posted with PIMCO’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or PIMCO and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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