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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (April 26)


MARKET

Chinese equities dived across different sectors. News of a broad U.S. investigation of Huawei and Gree’s not paying dividend brought the market uncertainty to next level. It seems consolidation phrase would last for a while. No sector gained, while Household Appliance and Electronic Component sector led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 424.8 bn, up 1.31% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3075.03

-1.38

163.78

-7.02

Shenzhen

10292.12

-2.42

261.17

-6.78

CSI 300

3755.49

-1.91

125.77

-6.83

ChiNext

1781.28

-2.10

90.09

1.63

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

 

 

 

 

Downward-leading

Household Appliance

603868

Electronic Component

600183

 

NEWS

*Chinese micro-credit firms shrink in number, outstanding loans in Q1. China's micro-credit firms shrank in number and in outstanding loans in the first quarter of this year, central bank data showed Wednesday. There were 8,471 micro-credit firms in China by the end of March, down by 80 firms compared with the end of last year, according to the People's Bank of China. (China Daily)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


17568




Macro

Focus On ECB & US Tsy Yields


Morning Briefing April 26th 2018


A busy Thursday awaits.

 

Starting in Germany with the Gfk Consumer Climate indicator at 0600GMT. The consumer mood in Germany stabilized in March after the previous month's minor setback. The index value in March stood at 10.9, up from 10.8 in February. Given the economic and income expectations, as well as the propensity to buy being on the increase again, the Gfk forecast an increase in consumer climate for April to an index value of 11.0.

 

Next up at 0730GMT is the RiksBank policy decision. SEB note that 68% of their internal trading room survey expect the Riksbank to postpone the first rate hike with half of the respondents expecting the new path to point to a hike at the December meeting as opposed to the September meeting.

 

Moving to the UK is the CBI Distributive Trades data at 1000GMT. The expected sales balance for April is at 23 units compared to March's disappointing report sales balance of 5.

 

The ECB Monetary Policy decision is at 1145GMT in Frankfurt and is not expected by analysts to change from its current refinancing rate of 0%, interest rate on marginal lending of 0.25% and the deposit facility rate of -0.40%. All focus will be on whether they make any tweaks to the wording of the statement on guidance.

 

The level of initial jobless claims (due at 1230GMT) is expected to rise by 1,000 to 233,000 in the April 21, gaining back the decline from the previous week.

 

Durable goods orders (also 1230GMT) are expected to rise by 1.2% in March after a 3.0% gain in February. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a 0.5% increase after a 1.0% gain in February.

 

Also at 1230GMT is the advance goods trade. The previous advance goods trade gap stood at -USD77 billion, with advance wholesale inventories and retail inventories growing at 1% and 0.4% respectively.

 

Moving to Canada and 1230GMT sees their payroll and employment data for February. Average weekly earnings in January saw growth of 3.2%.

 

The final of the 1230GMT batch is a press conference in Frankfurt following the Governing Council meeting of the ECB.

 

The last of the US data is at 1400GMT with the Housing Vacancies rate which previously grew at 1.6%.

 

Sofia in Bulgaria closes out the afternoon by hosting ECB Supervisory Board Chair Daniele Nouy at Exchange of views.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 up 110.73 points at 22326.22 - ASX 200 down 11.053 points at 5910.5 - Shanghai Comp. down 28.761 points at 3089.213 - JGB 10-Yr future down 12 ticks at 150.43, yield up 0.4bp at 0.071% - Aussie 3-Yr future down 0.5 ticks at 97.705, yield up 0.9bp at 2.249% - Aussie 10-Yr future down 1.5 ticks at 97.105, yield up 4.1bp at 2.879% - US 10-Yr future down 1 tick at 119.01+, yield up 0.18bp at 3.0277%

US TSYS: Tsys operate around Wednesday's lows after the benchmark US 10-Year yield consolidated above 3.00% after a brief tick higher in the early part of Thursday's Asia-Pacific session. - The curve is a little steeper than it was at settlement - The Eurodollar strip has traded in lacklustre fashion, with the white & red contracts unchanged to 0.5 ticks higher, back from the early session highs.

JGBS: JGB futures went into the lunch break 7 ticks softer at 150.48, recovering from the early session lows, although the space never really looked like garnering a solid bid as the Nikkei 225 traded higher & the US-10 Year yield consolidated above 3.00%. - The belly of the curve outperformed the short & long end.

AUSSIE BONDS: The space has stuck to a tight range in SFE dealing, with 3-Year Bond futures last trading 0.5 ticks lower at at 97.705, while 10-Year Bond futures trade 1.5 ticks softer at 97.105. Both contracts trade 1.5 ticks from highs. - The domestic 3-/10-Year yield differential has continued to steepen, last trading some 2.9bp steeper at 62.0bp, while the AU/US 10-Year spread operates at -15.5bp. - There has been little in the way of catalysts for traders to take cues from today, meaning that the space has stuck to a tight range. - The longer end of the curve continues to be subject to the gyrations seen in the US curve. - 3-Month BBSW fixed unchanged today, with the white and red bill contracts last trading 1 to 3 ticks softer than settlement.

STOCKS: Asia's major indices were mostly lower on Thursday as tech names moved higher, while financials took a hit. - The Nikkei 225 bucked the broader trend, adding 0.5%, with the IT sector outperforming, while energy names added the most weight to the index. - The Hang Seng lost 0.7% as IT names weighed, while energy was the only sector to trade higher. - China's CSI 300 lost 1.4%. - Australia's ASX lost 0.2% with the Financial sector adding the most weight, while the health care sector lodged the largest gains. - US index futures moved higher following a strong run of earnings posted after the bell. The e-mini S&P added 5 points, while the mini Dow added 16 points.

OIL: Crude oil moved higher overnight as French President Emmanuel Macron revealed his belief that the US will withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. WTI & Brent added $0.40 to trade at $68.40 & $74.40 respectively. - This came after the weekly DoE crude inventory data revealed a surprise headline draw (much like the one seen in the API inventory estimate on Tuesday), while distillate & gasoline stocks fell, Cushing stocks ticked higher & US production edged higher.

GOLD: Gold stuck to a tight range, with the yellow metal last trading virtually unchanged at $1324/oz.

FOREX: The USD consolidated the bulk of Wednesday's gains, after Tsy yields consolidated, while Moody's affirmed the US' AAA rating. - AUDUSD has added 15 or so pips to deal at ~0.7580, with AUDNZD adding a similar amount of pips to trade around 1.0715. AUD demand reportedly stemmed from domestic hedging interests. - NZDUSD trades flat at 0.7070, after the cross recorded a 7th consecutive daily loss on Wednesday, printing below 0.7100 for the first time since January. It would seem that the recent sell off has resulted in the emergence of some corporate demand, while some short-term indicators have moved into oversold territory. - USDJPY is 10 pips lower at 109.35, although the JPY has underperformed against the remaining majors. Fitch affirmed Japan's A rating, while Japanese PM Abe stated that he wasn't considering a snap election. - GBPUSD & EURUSD lodged modest gains. USDCAD shrugged off comments from BoC Gov Poloz, which offered little fresh insight.

Technical Analysis


BUND: (M18) Remains Supported Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 158.74 Low Apr 16 now resistance
*RES 3: 158.40 High Apr 20
*RES 2: 158.09 100-DMA
*RES 1: 158.04 Low Apr 19 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.77

*SUP 1: 157.59 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 157.34 Low Mar 14
*SUP 3: 156.22 Monthly Low Mar 8
*SUP 4: 156.02 Weekly Bear channel base    

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in bounces from below the 55-DMA with bears continuing to look for a close below 157.34 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and initially target 156.02-22 where the weekly bear channel base is found. The Bolli base (157.74) and O/S daily studies are now concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA (158.95) to return focus to 159.55-69 where Mar & Apr highs are noted.

EUROSTOXX50: Bears Dominate While 3523.81 Caps

*RES 4: 3600.36 Low Jan 21 now resistance
*RES 3: 3570.95 Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 2: 3555.52 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 3523.81 High Apr 24

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3485.83

*SUP 1: 3485.83 Low Apr 18
*SUP 2: 3455.22 Hourly support Apr 17
*SUP 3: 3435.58 Low Apr 16
*SUP 4: 3411.63 Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: The index failed to gain traction above the 200-DMA (3511.48) & 55-WMA (3516.29) with a marginal break of 3523.28 followed up by a break of 3476.59. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3523.81 to end bearish hopes, shift initial focus to 3570.95-3600.36 and overall focus to 2018 highs. Bears now shift focus to 3383.17-3435.58 with a close below 3383.17 to confirm focus on 2018 lows.

Eurex Futures Market Close


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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


17567




Technical Analysis

Wheat (ZW) Testing Daily Chart Triangle Resistance


Wheat (ZW) soared more than 3% yesterday, and is testing triangle resistance (on the daily chart) going into today's European morning.  Significantly, ZW has reclaimed the psychologically key 500 whole figure level, coinciding with horizontal resistance (on the weekly chart).  A decisive close above triangle resistance (on the daily chart) will quickly propel ZW to descending wedge resistance (on the weekly chart).  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are rallying, bottomish or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

Wheat (CME ZW Jul18) Weekly/Daily/4hr



Click here for today's technical analysis on Corn, Nasdaq100
 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


17566




Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (June)

Session close: Settled at 1.2224, down 61 ticks

Fundamentals: Tomorrow’s ECB meeting is the headline event of the week. They are expected to leave policy unchanged and the statement is due at 6:45 am CT. ECB President Mario Draghi begins his press conference at 7:30 am CT and his comments will be the most crucial. The Euro capped off an abysmal stretch ahead of this meeting by closing below our major three-star support and at the lowest level since January 12th. Ironically, we mention this January 12th area because the day prior, the Minutes from the December ECB Meeting pointed to a change in message around the corner. Many, including us, believed this was the first step towards hiking by the end of 2018. At their March meeting, the ECB removed their pledge to increase stimulus if necessary. While the Euro has lost significant ground over the last week, we look to the market now pricing in a dovish rhetoric tomorrow. While recent business sentiment data and Manufacturing has been downright poor, inflation has had traction and we believe this has gotten lost in much of the noise; the liquidation of the massive net-long position in the Euro and short-covering in the Dollar. The U.S 10-year crossing the 3% threshold has strengthened the Dollar, a surprisingly hawkish or simply not dovish ECB could get the Bund and regional yields cooking. As we have said early in the week, the door is now open for a strong recovery in the Euro tomorrow. German Consumer Climate is due at 1:00 am CT. From the U.S weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods and Trada Balance data are all due at 7:30 am CT.

Technicals: Price action is undeniably weak after closing below major three-star support at 1.2254-1.22765. However, this does not change our long-term outlook for the Euro as we remain unequivocally long-term bullish. In fact, we believe that this move is a ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Yen (June)

Session close: Settled at .9176, down 57.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The U.S Dollar continues to strengthen as the U.S 10-year has cleared the 3% barrier. This presents the biggest blow to the Yen because of the carry trade. Additionally, equity markets bounced back strongly today and have seen further strength after-hours on great tech earnings. While the Yen is trading at tremendous support, traders must be cautious on both sides of the trade for the aforementioned reasons and as we gear up for Dollar-related volatility due to the ECB meeting and tomorrow night’s Bank of Japan meeting.

Technicals: The Yen held major three-star support though today’s session and close, but it is hanging by a thread; this level aligns multiple key technical indicators along with ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Aussie (June)

Session close: Settled at .7565, down 34 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie got smoked today and it has been the only currency in which we have a Bearish Bias. Yesterday, we pointed to weak CPI data and this coupled with a soft metals complex has paved the way for a path of least resistance lower. Import/Export Price Index data is due tonight at 8:30 pm CT. Traders must watch the U.S Dollar’s reaction to tomorrow’s ECB meeting, do not be mistaken, this will affect the Aussie.

Technicals: As mentioned above, the path of least resistance is lower, and we are targeting ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Canadian (June)

Session close: Settled at .7792, down 8.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian held ground the best against the strengthening or we should say short-covering in the U.S Dollar. The energy complex posted a good session and Crude Oil recovered to settle back above the $68 mark. Bank of Canada Governor spoke this afternoon and noted that they will remain cautious while inflation is gaining traction. There is now data out of Canada tomorrow, but the currency will be susceptible to Euro related swings in the U.S Dollar. However, traders do need to keep in mind that the steel and aluminum tariffs are set to go into effect next week and this will put pressure on sides to achieve a NAFTA deal; a failure to do so would hurt the Canadian.

Technicals: We remain Neutral due to the U.S Dollar strength, the undeniable weakness and NAFA headwinds. Still, major three-star support at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


17565




Options

Cboe - What's Trading: TWTR


Peter Lusk discusses a size put trade in TWTR & implied volatility post earnings.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2018 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

This video is from Cboe and is being posted with Cboe’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Cboe and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


17563




1 2 3 4 5 2 1026

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