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宏观分析

Interactive Brokers - The Market Giveth, The Market Taketh Away


Equity markets have had a very difficult time establishing a direction after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting.  We entered the announcement with lower indices, pushed down by the President’s acknowledgment that China trade talks were proceeding more slowly than expected.  We then rallied upon the market’s perception of a dovish tone from the Fed announcement.  We then turned lower as the market began to worry that Chairman Powell’s conciliatory tone was actually in response to weaker global economic conditions.

As one of those who believe that the conciliatory tone was indeed prompted by economic weakness, I was confounded by the ferocity of yesterday’s rally.  We saw the usual buy the dip crowd appear in response to some pre-market futures selling, but the buying continued throughout the session.  My morning market commentary questioned how the equity markets could remain sanguine in the face of a yield curve that had inverted out to 7 years with 10-year notes nearing an inversion.  Inverted yield curves, while not a perfect harbinger of doom, usually do not bode well for economic growth.

I fretted that while markets climb a wall of worry, I seemed to be one of the few worrywarts left.  Today I seem to have quite a bit of company.

Most of us in the US awoke to lower futures after a slew of tepid, if not chilly, economic releases in Europe.  Yields on 10-year notes fell below their 3-month and 2-year counterparts, signaling a deeper yield curve inversion, and the equity markets plunged below their Wednesday lows.  In hindsight, yesterday’s rally seems like a misguided last gasp of the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that institutional investors displayed this quarter.

Despite today’s sell-off, we haven’t yet seen significant fear burst out.  The VIX index has risen 2 points, or 15%, but remains below 16.  I would assert that fear will not have meaningfully surpassed greed until that index begins a flirtation with the 20 level.

Market participants would be well advised to watch the tone early next week with a jaundiced eye.  A snapback rally without significant news flow is likely to be suspicious, as it would be much healthier for equity markets to consolidate before retesting yesterday’s highs.  If the weekend news flow takes a negative turn, however, we could continue to see the markets churn lower. 

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There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23283




固定收益

Interactive Brokers - The U.S. Week Ahead (Mar 25-Apr 1)


Hawks and Doves to Descend on the World

Several voting members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will grace podiums across the globe in the week ahead to discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

The long list of prepared remarks and Q&A’s follows the FOMC’s decision Wednesday to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25-2.5%, and generally struck a more dovish-than-expected tone in its monetary policy stance.

The Fed noted that while it continues to expect sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation close to its 2% objective, global economic and financial headwinds and muted inflation pressures largely spurred the policymakers to reiterate that they will remain “patient,” as they determine what future adjustments may be appropriate.

 

 

Briefing.com’s chief market analyst Patrick O’Hare highlighted that the Fed, among other things, said it doesn't expect to raise interest rates again this year, when roughly three months ago, it anticipated raising interest rates two times in 2019. 

He continued that “it seemed out of character for a typically prudent Fed to go from two expected rate hikes to no rate hikes in a short period of time.

“It's a shift dictated by a belief that the U.S. economy is in good shape and that current data, which shows muted inflation and solid growth, doesn't signal a need to move rates in any direction, according to Fed Chair Powell.”

In his subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell attributed his optimism about the central bank’s outlook on the economy to strength in U.S. economic fundamentals, including a strong labor market, low unemployment, rising incomes, as well as “attractive levels” of household and business confidence.

The Fed anticipates growth of around 2% in 2019, just south of the prior year’s rate.

In terms of balance sheet normalization, the FOMC committed to reducing its Treasury security holdings by halving the cap on monthly redemptions from the current level of US$30bn to US$15bn starting in May 2019. It further intends to arrest the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) at the end of September 2019.

Jefferies economists Ward McCarthy and Thomas Simons said they expect the FOMC “to slow the rate normalization process and be more data dependent going forward as policymakers probe their way toward a neutral fed funds rate estimate of 3%.

“Due to the combination of the effect of the trade war on commodities markets in general since mid-2018, and the related weakness in energy prices, inflation is very likely to hold below the Fed’s 2% target at least into Q2 this year.”

McCarthy and Simons added that “it is likely to be several months before the FOMC resumes the rate normalization process with the next rate hike,” adding that monetary policy going forward will be “significantly more difficult to anticipate in advance due to combination of increased data dependence, a softer tone to the inflation data and the flexibility to make policy changes at every meeting.”

Against this backdrop, a slew of Fed speakers is set to deliver their views on monetary policy and the economy at podiums across the globe.

Market participants may start the parade of speeches, along with salient economic updates, including personal income and spending, housing, retail sales, GDP and manufacturing.

 

The busy week kicks off with:

Monday, March 25

  • Event: OMFIF City Lecture, Economic Outlook (London, UK)

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker (non-voter) speaks and answers questions

Economy

  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Mar)

 

Tuesday, March 26

  • Event: Chicago Booth Alumni - US Federal Reserve Policy: Influence and Impact on Hong Kong, Asia and the Global Economy (Hong Kong)

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Charles Evans (voter) and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren (voter) will discuss with former US Federal Reserve governor Randy Kroszner their views on US monetary policy and what they see as key risks to the domestic economy and globally.

They will also set to talk about the impact balance sheet reduction has had on financial conditions, as well as issues that factor into their determination of the ultimate size and composition of the Fed’s balance sheet.

  • Event: Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference (Hong Kong)

Reserve Bank of Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren (voter) gives a keynote address on Federal Reserve balance sheet decisions and market volatility

  • Event: Ninth OMFIF Economists Meeting (Frankfurt)

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker (non-voter) provides his economic outlook

  • Event: The Commonwealth Club: Managing Inflation in the Current Economy (San Francisco)

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly (non-voter) to talk about the benefits / drawbacks of subdued inflation after ten years of historic economic expansion.

Economy

  • Housing Starts (Feb)
  • S&P / Case-Shiller Home Prices (Jan)
  • American Petroleum Institute (API) Crude Oil Stocks

 

Wednesday, March 27

  • Event: Money Marketeers of New York University (New York)

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Esther George (voter) scheduled to speak at 5:30pm EDT

Economy

  • Trade Balance (Feb)
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks

 

Thursday, March 28

  • Event: Bank of France panel discussion: “Facing Global Shocks” (Paris)

Federal Reserve vice chair Richard Clarida (voter) participates in talks moderated by Martin Wolf, Financial Times

  • Event: Agriculture and Community Banking – Telephone Town Hall (Deming, New Mexico)

Federal Reserve governor Michelle "Miki" Bowman (voter) will be the opening speaker for the 2019 ICBA/NM Ag Lenders Conference

  • Event: European Central Bank Conference (Frankfurt)

Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision Randal Quarles (voter) to give a keynote speech about financial stability

  • Event: Economic conditions and recovery efforts (Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams (voter) will take part in a moderated discussion in San Juan, Puerto Rico as part of his two-day visit to the territory, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI), where he is also set to meet with leaders in the local nonprofit, government, and business sectors. The trip will focus on understanding current economic conditions and the continuing recovery efforts in the aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and Maria.

  • Event: University of Wisconsin-Madison (Madison, Wisconsin)

Federal Reserve president of St. Louis James Bullard (voter) will join the department of economics and The Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE) for a public seminar.

Economy

  • GDP (Q4)
  • Pending Home Sales (Feb)

 

Friday, March 29

  • Event: Shadow Open Market Committee: Strategic Approaches to the Fed’s Balance Sheet and Communications (New York)

Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision Randal Quarles (voter) slated to give the keynote address

Economy

  • Personal Income & Spending (Jan)
  • Chicago PMI (Mar)
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar – F)
  • New Home Sales (Feb)

 

Monday, April 1

Economy

  • Retail Sales (Feb)
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

 

Investors will most likely be combing through the Fed speech and dissecting the incoming data for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction, as well as how domestic and global challenges such as trade negotiations, tariffs and slowing global growth may be affecting the U.S. economy and financial markets.

In the meantime, select the Event Calendar option in the IBKR Trader Workstation for a full list of U.S. and global corporate events and earnings, dividend schedules, economic data, IPOs and more.

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The author does not hold any positions in the financial instruments referenced in the materials provided.

Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23282




技术分析

Stock Traders Daily - How Long Will Market Weakness Persist?


The economic data from Germany on Friday was weak, and more will come on Monday.  Investors are likely to remain nervous in advance of what they think could be another weak number.  Germany’s IFO Business climate data is scheduled for Monday before the open.

 

What should we expect from the market?

On Friday, the Manufacturing PMI from Germany showed a contraction, and when coupled with the general concerns vocalized by the FOMC this week, which directly influenced their decision on rates and future guidance, Wall Street is asking itself if the recent rally is warranted.

Economic growth matters more than interest rates.

The NDX lead the march higher in recent days, which was arguably fueled by AAPL.  The increase in AAPL over the past few days has caused the NDX to increase faster than all other markets, but the DOW, the Russell 2000, and the NASDAQ itself did not show the same degree of exuberance.

In fact, the Russell 2000 has been much weaker than the other markets, and it was the leadership group all year until AAPL started to increase aggressively recently.

The Russell 2000 is a much broader market, and the rally earlier in the year that was led by the Russell 2000 was quite broad, but that changed in recent days.  When the NDX took over, the leadership stocks were isolated to large cap tech, and that is concerning.

 

  • When the market that has led the way up starts to turn, that’s a concern.
  • When the new leadership group is only a handful of stocks, that’s a concern.
  • When economic concerns arise, that makes investors questions the rally.

Not only that, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average in expected to have a 15.6% earnings contraction in 2019, but this year, so far, investors have been ignoring that.

The technicals are not pretty either.  The Markets all tested longer-term resistance levels this week, and after Friday’s decline those resistance levels are holding.  Technical Resistance Levels

The carrot in front of this rally has been the potential for a trade deal with China, and face-to-face talks will happen next week, but a deal has also likely been priced in, and then some.  Expectations surrounding what an official trade deal with China might do to the market should be moderated.

There are reasons for concern, and instead of buying the dips, the market is likely to be much more rewarding for persons who short the peaks.

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Founded in January 2000, Stock Traders Daily has been online longer than almost everyone.  Stock Traders Daily combines our Macroeconomic Analysis with an added layer of combined market analysis to derive rules – based trading programs that have been tested in the best and worst of times, some of which can be automated too.  Find Out More.

Disclaimer: Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.  Substantial losses may come from investing in the stock market.  Consult with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions to invest. 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Stock Traders Daily and is being posted with Stock Traders Daily 's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Stock Traders Daily and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23281




宏观分析

Rareview Macro - Key Signal - Floating Rate Paper


Yesterday, risky assets had a good day. Floating-rate paper, did not.

The Senior Loan ETF (symbol: BKLN) declined by more than one standard deviation (SD), while US equity markets, especially interest-rate sensitive and secular growers, appreciated by between 1.5-2.5 SD’s.

 

Effectively, investors extended the duration of their portfolios in one fashion or another, which started with selling floating-rate paper that has a near-zero duration.

This underperformance is representative of the negative duration that is structurally embedded in investors’ portfolios, the banking system, the insurance business, and anything else sensitive to interest rates. Said differently, if a large bank’s negative duration gap is ~8 months, and they have $2.6 trillion in assets, how much duration do you think they need to buy? It’s no wonder the KBW Bank Index (BKX) is -5.56% this week. 

It is further highlighted in the $12.1bn of inflows into US bond funds over the last week, the largest in more than a year, and inflows have averaged ~$8bn per week for every week this year.

Conclusion: If the Fed is on hold, why do you need floating rate paper anymore?

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To see the remainder of today's edition, please sign up for a subscription to Sight Beyond Sight through Interactive Brokers.

Sight Beyond Sight® is a global macro trading newsletter written daily by Neil Azous. With close to two decades of institutional experience across asset classes, Neil interprets the day-to-day economic, policy and strategy developments and provides actionable trading ideas for investors. We invite clients of Interactive Brokers to sign up for a free trial in Account Management. If you are not a client of IB, you can sign up for a free trial by visiting our website.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Rareview Macro and is being posted with Rareview Macro’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Rareview Macro and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23274




外汇

Janus Henderson - China: Winning the Weighting Game - by Charlie Awdry, CFA


Investment Manager Charlie Awdry discusses the implications of China A shares’ increased weighting in MSCI equity indices and how this is likely to attract more foreign investment in China’s equity markets.

Key Takeaways

  • MSCI announced it will increase the weighting of China A shares in its indices by quadrupling the inclusion factor from 5% to 20% by November 2019.
  • The decision is confirmation that the introduction of A shares into MSCI indices last year has been successful and that access is improving for foreign investors.
  • Increased participation by foreign institutional investors in China’s domestic equity markets should help these markets mature, improving mutual knowledge and understanding while enabling Chinese equity issuers to improve corporate governance.
  • China’s increasing importance on the global investment stage should be a strong driver for investors to reassess their exposure.

 

What’s the News?

Index provider MSCI announced on February 28 that it will increase the weighting of China A shares (Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks) in its indices by quadrupling the inclusion factor from 5% to 20% by November 20191.

As a result, there will be 253 large-cap and 168 mid-cap, China A shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which increases the A shares’ weighting in the index from 0.7% to 3.3%. This is in addition to existing China weights in the Index from Hong Kong-listed H shares and New York-listed American Deposit Receipts. In the event of full inclusion (100% inclusion factor), China A shares alone would account for 16.3% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index based on current market capitalizations, meaning Chinese equities as a whole would exceed 40%.

Shares listed on China’s tech-focused ChiNext, a Nasdaq-style board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, will also be included in the indices from May 2019.

 

China’s Increasing Weight within the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index

Source: Janus Henderson Investors, based on MSCI data, as of 2/28/19. Notes: Index weights taken at calendar year-ends. China became the largest country weighting in 2007. *Hypothetical 100% inclusion (which may or may not occur in the future). China would comprise 42% of the index, based on current market capitalization.

 

Why Is It Important?

As outlined below, we expect the move to drive further positive change for China’s equities market and for Chinese companies, resulting in increased investment from global investors.

 

Improved Access

The move is confirmation that the introduction of A shares into MSCI indices last year has been positive and that access is improving for foreign investors. This is predominantly due to the successful rollout of A shares on the “Stock Connect” scheme, which facilitates mutual market access between mainland China and Hong Kong. The mechanism has proved both resilient and flexible, addressing many of the concerns that MSCI had about the alignment of the China A shares market with international market accessibility standards.

 

Boosting China’s Credibility

MSCI’s decision reflects broader reform in the country as the government steps up its efforts to integrate China’s capital markets into the global financial system.

The Chinese economy continues to slow, with guidance at the recent National People’s Congress targeting 6% to 6.5% gross domestic product growth, down from last year’s 6.5%. But government policymaking has taken a pro-growth turn this year, with targeted plans to boost spending, cut taxes and open up foreign investor access to its markets.

This, together with an apparent softening in the U.S. stance toward China trade tariffs, has led to a strong rally in the A shares market this year, albeit from a low base following last year’s sell-off. The rally reflects the sentiment-driven nature of the A shares market, which tends to be dominated by “emotional” domestic investors. It is this volatility that can make the A shares market particularly difficult to navigate. However, due to its sheer size and depth, it often can be a place where active managers are able to uncover opportunities.

Unlike local investors, foreign investors tend to take a longer-term, fundamentals-based approach, preferring a subset of high-quality businesses within these markets. With the increased institutional activity that the higher weighting is likely to bring, we expect some of these shares to re-rate and trade differently to the rest of the A shares market over time, with pricing inefficiencies correcting as the shareholder base becomes more stable.

Increased attention from, and participation by, foreign institutional investors in China’s domestic equity markets should help these markets mature, improving mutual knowledge and understanding while enabling Chinese equity issuers to improve corporate governance.

 

Diverse Opportunity Set

The A shares market is complex and dynamic. With more than 3,000 listed companies, it is one of the biggest markets in the world and continues to grow apace. Reforms are likely to translate into an even bigger number of initial public offerings over the coming years.

We believe China’s increasing importance on the global investment stage should be a strong driver for investors to reassess their exposure and consider a separate allocation to a specialist China equity manager outside their emerging markets or Asia allocation. A specialist approach to investing in China may potentially give broader and deeper exposure to dynamic Chinese companies.

 

1Index inclusion factor: MSCI uses the standard index inclusion factor as part of its calculations to determine the weight of a security in the index. For example, with the index inclusion factor at 20%, each A share’s weight in the index will be 20% of its available free-float market capitalization, adjusted for any applicable limits on foreign ownership.

Foreign securities are subject to currency fluctuations, political and economic uncertainty, increased volatility and lower liquidity, all of which are magnified in emerging markets. Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate, inflation, credit and default risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa.

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Originally Posted on March 21, 2019

The opinions and views expressed are as of the date published and are subject to change without notice. They are for information purposes only and should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector. No forecasts can be guaranteed. Opinions and examples are meant as an illustration of broader themes and are not an indication of trading intent. It is not intended to indicate or imply that any illustration/example mentioned is now or was ever held in any portfolio. Janus Henderson Group plc through its subsidiaries may manage investment products with a financial interest in securities mentioned herein and any comments should not be construed as a reflection on the past or future profitability. There is no guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, nor are there any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value.

There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Janus Henderson Investors and is being posted with Janus Henderson Investors’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Janus Henderson Investors and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23276




1 2 3 4 5 2 2030

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