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宏观分析

GUOSEN Closing Bell (May 23)


MARKET

Chinese equities slumped and closed at all day low, as energy producers declining on report China planned to lower coal price. No sector gained, while Coal and Oil sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 433.7 bn, down 0.99% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3168.96

-1.41

199.36

-4.18

Shenzhen

10631.12

-1.25

261.40

-3.71

CSI 300

3854.58

-1.32

110.68

-4.37

ChiNext

1845.97

-1.60

93.94

5.32

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

 

 

 

 

Downward-leading

Coal

600188

Oil

603026

 

NEWS

*Barclays enters potential merger. Barclays Plc has been exploring a potential merger with rival banks including Standard Chartered Plc, as part of wide-ranging contingency plans being weighed by senior board members following pressure from an activist investor. (Bloomberg)

*Ant Financial Partners With Everbright Bank on ‘Digital Transformation’. Ant Financial Services Group, an affiliate of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., has signed a cooperation deal with China Everbright Bank and its fintech subsidiary of Everbright Technology to speed up the bank’s digital transformation, Ant Financial said in a statement on Wednesday. (Caixin)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18099




宏观分析

China & North Korea Uncertainty Dents Risk


Morning Briefing May 23rd 2018


Starting at 0530GMT in France, unemployment data for March will be published. Previously, unemployment quarter on quarter was at 8.9% for February.

From 0700GMT France and Germany's flash manufacturing and services PMIs will be published. This is followed afterwards with the Eurozone PMI data. France's manufacturing and services PMI data for May at 0700GMT is expected by analysts to remain fairly neutral from April, with manufacturing expected to fall very slightly from 53.8 in April to 53.7 in May. Services PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 57.4.

Next is Germany at 0730GMT. Telling a similar story to France in terms of analyst expectations, services PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 53.0, compared to manufacturing which is expected to fall by 0.3 units from 58.1 in April to 57.8 in May.

Putting these and the other Eurozone countries together accommodates the release of the Eurozone composite, manufacturing and services PMI at 0800GMT. MNI median estimates suggest an unchanged composite PMI at 55.1 for May. The manufacturing and services is expected to fall from 56.2 to 56.0 and services expected to fall from 54.7 to 54.6.

Before the UK takes the reins at 0830GMT with its CPI and PPI data, RBA Governor Philip Lowe speaks in Sydney, Australia at 0800GMT. UK CPI is not expected by analysts to change from its prior y/y figure of 2.5%. However, this may be hiding upward pressure from components such as energy and non-alcoholic beverages.

At 0900GMT is ECB Supervisory Board member Ignazio Angeloni participating in a panel in Brussels, France.

The next piece of data is in the UK with the CBI Distributive Trades at 1000GMT.

New home sales in the US (1400GMT) are expected to slow to a 678,000 annual rate in April following a sharp gain in March and upward revisions to January and February.

Undoubtedly what markets are hungry for and what MNI analysis has pointed to is the FOMC minutes at 1800GMT in Washington. This is followed up shortly after at 1815GMT with Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participating in a Q&A in North Dakota. Worth noting is Kashkari noted concerns about the central bank getting too-aggressive with interest-rate hikes.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 down 255.34 points at 22704.64 - ASX 200 down 4.07 points at 6038.3 - Shanghai Comp. down 25.698 points at 3188.652 - JGB 10-Yr future up 8 ticks at 150.86, yield down 0.7bp at 0.048% - Aussie 10-Yr future up 2.5 ticks at 97.145, yield down 2.3bp at 2.841% - US 10-Yr future up 2+ ticks at 118.30+, yield down 0.93bp at 3.0504%

US TSYS: Tsys have edged higher, after they managed print fresh session highs as USDJPY moved to lows. While there is little apparent in terms of fresh headline risk it is worth noting that Trump has reintroduced questions re: the Chinese trade situation & North Korea over the last 24 hours which may be hampering risk. The space now operates just off of best levels. Eurodollar futures have also edged higher.

JGBS: JGB futures followed their global peers higher in the morning session, although they operated in a tight range, going into the lunch break 5 ticks higher at 150.83. The cash space operated in a mixed fashion, with little in the way of clear direction, as swaps tightened in the main. - The latest round of BoJ Rinban operations saw the BoJ leave the size of the operations covering the 1-5 & 10-25+ Year buckets unchanged. Looking at the breakdown of the operations the most notable takeaway was probably the fact that the longer dated operations offer to cover ratio eased notably, will the shorter dated operations saw the offer to cover ratio edge higher.

AUSSIE BONDS: 3-Year Bond futures last trade at 97.770 (+1.5 ticks), while 10-Year bond futures trade at 97.150 (+2.5 ticks). - The space ticked to lows after US President Donald Trump noted that the Ways & Means Committee is working on more tax cuts by "November," but the move was very limited. This came before a move to fresh highs, in line with US Tsys. Aussie Bonds were also supported by a soft completed construction work reading. - The domestic 3-/10-Year yield differential sits 1.0bp flatter at 64.7bp, while the AU/US 10-Year yield differential trades 0.7bp wider at -21.0bp.

STOCKS: Asia-Pacific stocks languished after US President Trump noted that his summit with North Korea's Kim may be delayed. Worries over the US-China trade situation also dented risk, which allowed the JPY to move higher. - The Nikkei 225 shed 1.25% with all the major sectors trading lower on the day, although it was the energy space that added the most weight. - The Hang Seng lost 1.00%, once again the energy sector lead the way lower, although the IT sector managed to trade higher. China's CSI 300 shed 0.9%. - The ASX 200 was the relative outperformer, only losing 0.1% as the energy sector once again added the most weight. The real estate sector was the largest gainer. - US index futures also came under pressure, with the mini Dow shedding 80 points, as the e-mini S&P lost 8 points.

OIL: Oil traded lower overnight as risk assets took a hit hit. WTI lost $0.25 to trade at $71.95, while Brent lost $0.50 to trade at $79.05. - Reports suggest that the latest API crude inventory data pointed to a draw in headline crude stocks, while the body estimated that Cushing & distillate stocks also fell, while API estimated an uptick in Gasoline stocks. Traders now await today's DoE release. - Tuesday saw some source reports doing the rounds. One source noted that Russia wouldn't rule out extending the OPEC+ production deal into 2019, while another suggested that OPEC may decide to raise oil output in June owing to concerns surrounding Venezuelan & Iranian supply.

GOLD: Gold managed to register gains of just over $1 to trade at $1292/oz in Asia-Pacific dealing.

FOREX: JPY was the biggest winner as broad-based risk aversion hit mkts. The JPY crosses were sold throughout the session. USDJPY now sits at 110.50, with some $2.01bln worth of 110.00 & $1.46bln worth of 111.00 options set to roll off at today's 10AM NY cut. The DXY printed gains elsewhere (ex-CHF), with the Antipodeans coming under pressure after a soft AU com. construction work headline print & after the RBNZ noted that it would be open to non-standard MonPol measures if needed, although it doesn't foresee a sharp decline in the OCR. USDTRY surged higher, with some attributing the move to the Japanese retail exiting the TRYJPY cross. USDTRY is back from highs.

Techncial Analysis


 BUND: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 159.69

*RES 4: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance
*RES 3: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28
*RES 2: 159.61 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 159.50 High May 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.06

*SUP 1: 158.74 Low May 22
*SUP 2: 158.55 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 158.49 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 157.61 Low May 15    

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 159.69 is less than ideal for bulls with the Bollinger band top currently capping. Bulls need a close above 159.69 to confirm a break of the 200-WMA (159.64) and to shift immediate focus to 160.26-98. The 158.49-74 support region where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted is key today. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to 157.34-61. Daily studies are now well placed for a fresh leg higher.

EUROSTOXX50: Hesitating Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: 3687.22 2018 High Jan 23
*RES 3: 3662.86 Low Jan 21 now resistance
*RES 2: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1
*RES 1: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3587.25

*SUP 1: 3566.53 Low May 18
*SUP 2: 3551.12 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 3549.26 Low May 10
*SUP 4: 3540.14 Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 3600.36 continues with the Bollinger band top noted just above at 3605.44. Bulls need a close above 3600.36 to confirm focus on tests of 2018 highs (3687.22). Layers of support remain with bears now looking for a close below 3566.53 to gain breathing room and below the 200-DMA (3518.06) to shift focus back to 3460.07-3464.35 where the 55-DMA is situated.

Eurex Futures Market Close


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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18098




技术分析

Wheat (ZW) Daily MACD Positively Crosses


Wheat (ZW) rebounded almost 3% yesterday, bouncing off just above an uptrend support line (on the 4hr and daily chart).  Significantly, ZW's green weekly Hammer completes last week's reversal of the prior week's profittaking, and paves the way for a resumption of a 5 month uptrend.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to go long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

Wheat (CME ZW Jul17) Weekly/Daily/4hr



Click here for today's technical analysis on VIX, Arabica Coffee
 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18097




期货

FX Rundown


Euro (June)

Session close: Settled at 1.1800, up 5 ticks

Fundamentals: Momentum carried over from yesterday’s session and the Euro traded to an overnight high of 1.1852 before stalling at our first key resistance level. The spike came at 2:00 am CT when Germany reopened from being closed for holiday on Monday. Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, released their Monthly Report and they were very upbeat on the economy, saying that they, “expect the boom to continue”. They did say that growth momentum has slowed but do believe many factors are transitory. With no major data on today’s calendar the Euro quickly found itself in a consolidation hugging the 1.18 mark. Tomorrow gets going early with regional PMIs from France at 2:00 am CT and German at 2:30. The Eurozone reads come in at 3:00 am CT. Traders should also keep an eye on inflation data from Britain at 3:30 am CT and a German 2-year auction at 4:40. U.S PMIs are due at 8:45 am CT and will be followed by New Home Sales at 9:00. Also, at 9:00 is Eurozone Consumer Confidence. Rounding up the day but surely not least important will be the FOMC Minutes due at 1:00 pm CT. Certainly, it will be important to get insight on the use of “symmetric inflation goals”.

Technicals: Price action stalled directly at first key resistance and found itself back near the pivot of 1.1797 by settlement. Yesterday, we went outright Bullish in Bias and while we remain such we have reduced it slightly after achieving first key resistance in order to exude some caution ahead of a big fundamental day tomorrow. There is tremendous long-term ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Yen (June)

Session close: Settled at .90235, up 8 ticks

Fundamentals: Today was favorable for the Yen as equity markets slipped slightly and Treasury prices held ground. Still, BoJ Core CPI early this morning missed at 0.5% versus 0.6%. Ultimately this was a token consolidation session ahead of a tremendous amount of data from Europe and the U.S; tomorrow is important because it will signal whether the growth slowdown is true or transitory and could spark buying or selling in the safe-haven Yen. Tonight, Manufacturing PMI is due at 7:30 pm CT. All Industries Activity is due at 11:30 pm CT and Machine Tool Orders are due at 1:00 am CT.

Technicals: First key support was achieved yesterday and opened the door for a consolidation through today. Price action remains well below first key resistance at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Aussie (June)

Session close: Settled at .7578, up 7 ticks

Fundamentals: Price action across all markets today was choppy. Equites, energies and metals all pushed higher early this morning, but the buyers dissipated. This weighed on the commodity currency as the day unfolded. Tonight, we look to Westpac Consumer Sentiment and Construction data at 8:30 pm CT. Tomorrow brings a slew of data from Euro and then the U.S as well as FOMC Minutes, expect the choppiness to continue.

Technicals: Sellers came in today not only well in front of major three-star resistance but in front of minor resistance at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Canadian (June)

Session close: Settled at .78095, down 2.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian mirrored Crude prices today and lost ground it reversed from the highest level since November 2014. Additionally, equity markets finished on soft footing and this did not help the battle. However, Wholesale Sales topped estimates this morning, and this took the Canadian to its high of the session at .78525 before reversing. With U.S PMIs, inventory data and FOMC Minutes tomorrow, we expect a very volatile trade. NAFTA remains elusive though it is in the crosshairs of all sides involved.

Technicals: Price action stalled against first key resistance and today’s reversal does not do the technicals any favors. We of course remain Neutral, however, considering the long-term construction we will keep ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18096




宏观分析

GUOSEN Closing Bell (May 22)


MARKET

Shanghai Composite index rebounded right after filling the gap on Monday. A settlement on ZTE ban is expected to reach soon, according to WSJ. Healthcare and Agriculture sectors led the gains, while Household Appliance and Real Estate sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 438 bn, down 4.97% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3214.35

0.02

185.72

-2.81

Shenzhen

10765.81

0.00

252.48

-2.49

CSI 300

3906.21

-0.38

102.88

-3.09

ChiNext

1876.00

0.73

88.22

7.04

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Healthcare

603676

Agriculture

002458

Downward-leading

Household Appliance

000333

Real Estate

600807

 

NEWS

*US and China near deal to lift ZTE ban. Washington and Beijing are nearing a deal to lift the ban on sales of US components to Chinese telecoms group ZTE, removing a contentious issue that has highlighted the entangled commercial ties between the world’s two major economies. A person briefed on the potential deal said the US department of commerce would allow ZTE to resume sourcing of American components in return for wholesale senior management changes and payment of another large fine. The proposed settlement was first reported by the Wall Street Journal. (Financail Times)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18095




1 2 3 4 5 2 1119

披露

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