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期权

Volatility 411


CBOETV - Jamie Tyrrell, Group One Trading, discusses traders buying large amounts front month calls.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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技术分析

Tracking Financials Into 2017 - Technical Breakdown


Financials have become more favorable as there is talks of new legislation that will reduce the regulations implemented during the financial crisis back in 2008, which will give banks more opportunity for growth and higher stock prices.

Looking at the daily chart of the $XLF (SPDR Financial ETF) you will notice that shares have been strong as prices made a huge jump into the end of 2016 where prices haven’t traded at since 2008. Shares consolidated into a nice flattop wedge that was broken a couple of weeks ago, on decent buying volume.

Now that shares are above that $23.87 top on the wedge we would like to see it hold above those prices like it has been before making another move up. That will be a key level to watch over the coming weeks along with current highs at $24.68 and $25. If prices come back down through $23.87 we could see a pullback to the ascending trendline that formed the wedge which is roughly around $23.50. Below that and we have room down to $23 where prices bounced off in late January.

Shares are well above their 200-day moving average currently sitting at $20.72 and their 50-day moving average at $23.65. Moving averages are all beginning to point north indicating buyers are in control and that we could see higher prices in the near future.  We also have oscillators confirming price action with most of them in overbought territory. This could also indicate that we are due for a pullback soon so we will want to keep an eye on it going forward.

Some big names to keep tabs on would be Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Bank Of America.
 

Ross Cameron is an active trader and owner of Warrior Trading which he founded in 2012 as a live trading chat room emphasizing education and idea generation. In 2014, he began teaching trading classes, taking a break in 2015 to write a best-selling book How to Day Trade, which can be found at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and other booksellers. Trading allows Ross to travel and bring his work with him. Today he continues to trade in his chat room and teach trading courses, and lives with his family in Vermont.

This article is from Warrior Trading and is being posted with Warrior Trading’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Warrior Trading and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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期货

An Initial Look at 2017-18 Crops


Excerpt from The Hightower Report

The USDA’s Agriculture Outlook Forum this past week presented the first full look at the supply/demand outlooks for the 2017/18 marketing year for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. Here are the results of the reports and what they suggest for the markets:

USDA Outlook Forum: Corn

Expectations for cheaper supplies from Brazil and Argentina in the near future are starting to get the attention of world buyers. The private Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult has estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 93 million tonnes versus the USDA’s estimate of 86.5 million. They also put Brazil's corn exports at 28 million tonnes, up from 14 million tonnes last year. Agroconsult’s estimate for Argentina’s corn production is 37 million tonnes versus the recent USDA estimate of 36.5 million.

February comes to a close soon, and the February spring crop insurance price for corn is running around $3.86 per bushel, close to $3.85 last year. The soybean crop insurance price has reached $10.21 versus $8.85 last year. This suggests that if there are shifts in acreage from the USDA’s initial Outlook Forum numbers, there would likely be an increase in soybean acreage and a decline in corn.

The demand tone from the supply/demand estimates is bearish for corn. Granted, corn usage for ethanol demand is projected to be up by 50 million bushels from 2016/17 to a record-high 5.4 billion bushels, but feed usage is down 150 million bushels to 5.45 billion, and exports are down 325 million bushels to 1.9 billion. (This 14.6% drop in exports is likely due to expectations of a surge in South American corn production.)

This leaves the forecast for ending stocks at 2.215 billion bushels, a burdensome level. Our demand numbers are a little less bearish, but they still point to the second highest stocks to use ratio since 2005/06.

While the market may build a weather premium during the April-June timeframe, the short-term fundamental news is negative. We suggest position wait to establish bullish strategies when December Corn pulls back to the key support zone from $3.81 to $3.75 ¾. 

For trade recommendations and other research, subscribe to The Hightower Report's Weekly Market Letter and Daily Comments at Interactive Brokers.com.

Subscribe to The Hightower Report on Interactive Brokers!

For a Free Trial to The Hightower Report, log in to Account Management, then select

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For more information, go to https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=16948

This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.  Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.  This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon.  The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. 


12446




宏观分析

Fixed Income Market Questioning Federal Reserve Tightening Pace


Last Friday morning, we said we were particularly taken back when we learned after looking at our proprietary monitors that for the first time this year, in risk-adjusted terms, precious metals have overtaken the performance of ALL other commodities. In the context of the China/Trump reflation trade, specifically relative to industrial metals, that is quite a statement to us.

What was that statement? That a transition to anti-risk from the Trump trade has started.

Later that day, another switchover signal triggered in our Federal Reserve super-forecasting model. The market began to price the next interest rate hike by the Fed as the last - or "one in done." In layman's terms, the market began to see the need for a gradual pace of tightening as diminishing. That is a powerful signal as it would be the first time since the US Presidential Election that we've seen a potential structural shift in the fixed income market.

Sight Beyond Sight® is a global macro trading newsletter written daily by Neil Azous. With close to two decades of institutional experience across asset classes, Neil interprets the day-to-day economic, policy and strategy developments and provides actionable trading ideas for investors. We invite clients of Interactive Brokers to sign up for a free trial in Account Management. If you are not a client of IB, you can sign up for a free trial by visiting our website.

This article is from Rareview Macro and is being posted with Rareview Macro’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Rareview Macro and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12444




股票

Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk - Equity Market Insight February 27, 2017


As of 11:45AM:

NASDAQ Composite -0.04% Dow -0.05% S&P 500 +0.08% Russell 2000 +0.6 %
NASDAQ Advancers: 1185 / Decliners: 985
Today’s Volume (100day avg):  -3%

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed Friday with its 5th consecutive weekly gains, and touching new all-time highs. Despite the cautious sentiment amongst investors, US equities remain attractive. Market volatility has softened during the upward trend, as the S&P 500 hasn’t experienced an intraday change more than 1% (+/-) since December 7th, which is the longest streak in 2.5 years. Energy stocks will attempt to end its 2 month downward trend, up more than 1% this morning and the best performing sector. Oil, USD and Gold are little changed.

  • President Trump will speak in front of Congress tomorrow and we anticipate the main focus will be jobs creation, tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which may spur a rally in some of the best post-election stocks.
  • The Russell 2000 has jumped higher (+0.6%) this morning, helped by strong gains from AMD (+6%), GOGO (+18% - earnings), Excelis (+6% - drug pact with Bristol-Myers and Roche) and LaJolla Pharma (+75% - strong top-line results).
  • US stocks opened Friday’s session poised to end its recent weekly winning streak, but a late day rally pushed the DOW, S&P 500, and Nasdaq back into the green for the week.

Technical Take:

The Vaneck Vectors Steel ETF (ticker SLX) is one of today’s top performers with a 2.4% gain.  Today’s move was driven by comments from President Trump where he stated his intention to announce a large infrastructure spending plan at tomorrow’s Congressional speech.    Just last week there was growing concern in the marketplace regarding the size and timing of the administration’s tax and spending policies, and accordingly the SLX ETF declined 3.9%.   While today’s comments are relieving some of that anxiety, the price action in the steel ETF is showing signs of exhaustion.  YTD the SLX ETF is up 15.3% following 2016’s 95.8% return.  Two weeks ago the SLX made an opening gap higher to new 52-week highs and proceeded to run another 2%, however it then closed the week slightly below its open forming a bearish doji reversal pattern.  After the robust gains in 2016 and the strong start to 2017, the bearish doji suggests that week’s gap could be an exhaustion gap commonly found at the end of a steep uptrend.   The bearish doji reversal was then strongly confirmed by last week’s decline of 3.9% which itself formed a large bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.  This two-week reversal pattern took place along the all-important $43.89 pivot representing the prior 52-week high made in December.  There was also a bearish divergence at the recent breakout to new highs as the weekly RSI peaked back in December.   Also the recently made new 52-week highs could be a “false breakout” where the pullback from a short-lived breakout results in a sharp downside move instead of a simple consolidation and resumption of prior uptrend.    Key near term support resides at last week’s low, $42, below which opens the door to intermediate support at $37.78.  A break of this more important support line puts in play a sizeable double-top price pattern. 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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