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技术分析

Tradable Patterns - EURUSD Weekly MACD Positively Crossing


The EURUSD appears to be trying to form somewhat of a Bullish Island Reversal on the daily chart in today's Asia morning, where typically such reversals are preceded by a more pronounced downtrend.  Significantly, the EURUSD has consolidated the break last week above the weekly chart descending wedge resistance, and is readying to retest the psychologically key 1.15 whole figure level.  If the EURUSD tentative support near the upper end of the November to December range holds, the EURUSD will have formed a much higher low (with yesterday's low) versus the lows earlier in the month and in December and November.  Although there could be initial profittaking today from the ECB's Main Refinancing Rate announcement at 745am EST and the ECB Conference at 830am EST, the EURUSD is unlikely to fall to upchannel/triangle support (on the daily chart).  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am long as of yesterday and today at 1.1373, and am targeting the red zone for Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).

 

EURUSD Weekly/Daily/4hr

Click here for today's technical analysis on GBPUSD, Arabica Coffee

 

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22437




期货

FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures (1.23.2019)


 

The Dollar softened on the session as tomorrow’s ECB policy meeting comes into focus. Bill Baruch breaks down the upcoming economic calendar and levels for the Dollar, Euro, Yen, Aussie and Canadian. 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


22436




股票

New Constructs - Danger Zone Highlights From 2018


Check out this week’s Danger Zone interview with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life.

Our Danger Zone reports aim to identify firms that, despite more sanguine indications from GAAP earnings, non-GAAP, and other noise, have struggling businesses and highly overvalued stock prices.

It pays to read our Danger Zone reports. In 2018, 26 out of our 31 Danger Zone picks saw negative returns and 19 underperformed the market (S&P 500). All in, the Danger Zone stocks averaged a -12% return in 2018 versus the S&P 500’s 8% decline and outperformed as a short portfolio.

Recently we examined our worst Danger Zone picks from 2018. Now we’re taking some victory laps and looking at the blowups we successfully anticipated last year. These are the Danger Zone highlights from 2018.

Highlight 1: Snap, Inc. (SNAP) – published August 13: Down 56% vs. S&P down 11%

We originally featured Snap (SNAP: $6/share) in February 2017, prior to its IPO, and questioned the company’s ability to compete against existing social media giants. This IPO provides a cautionary tale on Sell-Side ratings as the same investment banks that underwrote the IPO issued conflicted research to support the IPO. Nine of the 13 underwriters issued “Buy” ratings, and one even maintained its Buy rating after discovering an error in its original financial model.

These bullish sell-side ratings could do nothing to stop growing losses and slowing user growth. By the end of the year, most of the sell-side analysts capitulated and downgraded the stock. SNAP ended 2017 down 39% from its IPO price, making it one of the Danger Zone highlights of 2017.

Even after 2017’s dismal year, SNAP remained overvalued going into 2018, and we doubled down on our bearish call by making the stock part of the “Micro-Bubble” of overvalued tech stocks. We pointed out that the company’s best features had all been successfully co-opted by Facebook (FB), its valuation remained overly optimistic, and its dual-class share structure made it nearly impossible for investors to oust flailing CEO Evan Spiegel.

Since we reiterated our call in August, the stock is down 56%, driven by declining daily active users, ongoing management turbulence, and the company’s insistence on relaunching the Spectacles product that led to a $40 million write-down on the first version.

SNAP’s 56% decline is more than 5 times the 11% drop for the S&P 500. Despite two years of significant underperformance, we still believe SNAP is overvalued, and the stock currently earns our Unattractive rating.

Highlight 2: Installed Building Products (IBP) – published May 21: Down 46% vs. S&P down 8%

Installed Building Products (IBP: $34/share) is a classic “roll-up” that buys up smaller competitors to manufacture EPS growth. The “High-Low Fallacy” enables these types of companies to grow accounting earnings even as they destroy shareholder value.

From the beginning of 2015 to when we published our article in May 2018, IBP made over 30 acquisitions. Theoretically, these acquisitions were supposed to create value by reducing competition and increasing economies of scale. In reality, our analysis showed that these acquisitions led to declining margins and return on invested capital (ROIC).

As is so often the case for roll-up schemes, IBP blew-up when the overall market, and the housing market in particular, began to slow. Investors were fine just looking at the company’s high EPS growth in 2017, but with increased stock market volatility and the housing market raising red flags, investors are digging deeper.

In particular, two numbers stand out when analyzing IBP. The first is its ROIC, which declined from a peak of 13% in 2016 to 9% over the trailing twelve months (TTM). The second is its total debt of $500 million (46% of market cap), which is up from $190 million in 2016. These two numbers make it clear that management’s acquisition strategy has made IBP a less profitable, more risky company over the past two years.

In a volatile market, it’s no surprise that IBP has struggled. The stock has been in a steady downward trend for most of the year, falling 46% since our article vs. an 8% decline for the S&P 500. Even after the decline, IBP still earns our Unattractive rating.

Highlight 3: Spotify Technology (SPOT) – published April 2 before direct listing on April 3: Down 37% from direct listing price vs. S&P down 12%

Spotify (SPOT: $110/share) debuted on the public markets in 2018 with a unique “direct listing.” Rather than selling new shares to the public, the company simply began allowing existing shareholders to sell on the public market without a traditional IPO.

Ahead of this unique debut, we attempted to quantify how much investors should be willing to pay for SPOT shares. The most bullish scenario we could imagine – one in which Spotify managed to displace the existing record labels and take full ownership of its streaming content – yielded a price target of $185/share, close to the $180/share level where the stock ultimately began trading.

Clearly, investors had high hopes for Spotify. These expectations were so optimistic that SPOT was one of our inaugural members in the “Micro-Bubble.”

So far, those high hopes have not been met. Shares have tumbled 37% due to growing competition from Apple Music (AAPL), the major record labels (who were among the earliest investors) dumping shares, and international expansion plans facing roadblocks.

The biggest problem for Spotify, as we’ve said all along, is its lack of leverage versus the four major record labels that control 85% of its content. Although the market values SPOT like a tech company, it has more in common with the movie theater business in terms of limited leverage versus the content owners and extremely thin margins.

As noted above, SPOT debuted with a valuation near our most bullish scenario for the company. Despite its 37% decline, the stock still has 28% downside to our neutral scenario, and an 87% downside to our bearish scenario. It also still earns our Unattractive rating, and we believe investors should continue to avoid this stock.

 

Click here to download a PDF of this report.

--

This article originally published on January 7, 2019.

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Sam McBride receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector or theme.

Follow us on TwitterFacebookLinkedIn, and StockTwits for real-time alerts on all our research.

About New Constructs

Our stock rating methodology instantly informs you of the quality of the business and the fairness of the stock’s valuation. We do the diligence on earnings quality and valuation so you don’t have to.

In-depth risk/reward analysis underpins our stock rating. Our stock rating methodology grades every stock according to what we believe are the 5 most important criteria for assessing the quality of a stock. Each grade reflects the balance of potential risk and reward of buying that stock. Our analysis results in the 5 ratings described below. Very Attractive and Attractive correspond to a "Buy" rating, Very Unattractive and Unattractive correspond to a "Sell" rating, while Neutral corresponds to a "Hold" rating.

Cutting-edge technology, featured by Harvard Business School, enables us to scale our unconflicted & comprehensive fundamental research across 10,000+ stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds. Learn more about New Constructs. Get a free trial. See what Barron’s has to say about our research.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from New Constructs, LLC and is being posted with New Constructs, LLC’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or New Constructs, LLC and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22433




股票

Vermilion Technical - Has "The Pullback" Begun?


The weight of the evidence suggests that the pullback has begun. This belief is supported by overbought conditions combined with the S&P 500, MSCI ACWI, and nearly all Sectors hitting logical resistance. Assuming the pullback continues, the next question is how deep or damaging will it be? Below we highlight various observations and market/technical indicators we are monitoring.

  • RS & ratio analysis. A relatively benign pullback would be supported by key cyclical/risk-on areas of the market holding up well in terms of RS
  • High yield & yield curve. We would like to see high yield spreads stay contained, and are looking for continued stabilization in HYG and JNK prices. Additionally, further inversion of the yield curve could have negative equity market implications.

 

  • Market internals. We are watching for positive divergences between equity prices and indicators such as advance/decline lines, the percentage of stocks above their 50- and 200-day moving averages, and the cyclicals vs. defensives ratio - of which none currently exist.
  • U.S. dollar. Any significant USD appreciation is likely to be a problem for global risk assets. Consolidation or a gradual weakening will be preferred.

--

About Us

David Nicoski, CMT is Vermilion’s Chief Investment Strategist and is responsible for managing the firm’s research products and investment recommendations. David Nicoski was previously a Principal and Senior Technical Analyst in the Technical Research department of a global investment bank and has more than 20 years of technical research experience.  Mr. Nicoski attended college at the University of Minnesota in the Applied Business Program and the Carlson School of Management. Mr. Nicoski holds a Chartered Market Technician designation and is a member of the Market Technician’s Association.

Ross LaDuke is a Global Technical Strategist for Vermilion and has oversight and responsibility for managing the firm’s international research products and technical strategy. Ross was previously employed by JNBA Financial Advisors where he was responsible for trading and rebalancing accounts, analyzing and reporting on current and potential individual equity and mutual fund holdings, and supporting the firm’s overall investment philosophy. His previous experience includes an internship at Split Rock Private Trading & Wealth Management. Ross is a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA), and holder of the organization’s Chartered Market Technician (CMT®) designation.

Ross is a graduate of the University of Minnesota-Duluth, Labovitz School of Business and Economics. Ross earned a bachelor’s degree in economics, as well as minors in financial planning and financial markets.

Vermilion Research was founded in 2006 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Vermilion’s research team has a combined 80 year of experience in the analysis and management of investment securities.

Disclaimer: The information contained herein is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any unauthorized disclosure distribution, dissemination or copying of this material or any attachment is strictly prohibited; such information, whether derived from Vermilion Vermilion Capital Management, LLC or from any oral or written communication by way of opinion, advice, or otherwise with a principal of the company is not warranted in any manner whatsoever, is for the use of our customers only and may be obtained from internal and external research sources considered to be reliable. It is not necessarily complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed by Vermilion Capital Management, LLC, its operating entity or the principals therein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any future or security referred to in Vermilion research publications. Principals of Vermilion Capital Management, LLC may or may not hold, or be short of, securities discussed herein, or of any other securities, at any time. The foregoing also expressly applies to any trial subscription.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Vermilion Capital Management, LLC and is being posted with Vermilion Capital Management, LLC’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Vermilion Capital Management, LLC and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22434




宏观分析

PIMCO - The Economic Cost of the U.S. Shutdown Showdown - By Libby Cantrill & Tiffany Wilding


The partial U.S. government shutdown that began on 22 December 2018 has entered its record-setting fourth week, with no clear resolution in sight. Although the $5.7 billion of border wall funding at the heart of the shutdown is small relative to the annual $4 trillion government budget, its symbolic significance is such that neither side seems close to relenting – nor does a bigger deal on immigration seem likely.

The shutdown affects 25% of the government, with more than 800,000 employees either furloughed or working without pay and a panoply of functions currently offline. While we believe the shutdown on its own would have only a modest impact on growth, the combined impact of this and other short-term drags on the economy could slow first-quarter growth close to the zero mark – an outcome that would weigh on markets and make the Federal Reserve’s decision about whether to pause rate hikes in March even more straightforward.

 

Dim prospects for a deal

Our view is that a negotiated resolution between President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats is unlikely and that the president will ultimately declare an emergency under the 1976 National Emergencies Act, which would allow him to reappropriate already allocated dollars toward building his desired wall on the southern border.

While this move would likely be contested (and potentially blocked) in the courts – not to mention draw the ire of conservative Republicans, who consistently complained of executive overreach by President Barack Obama – it could achieve two desirable political outcomes for the president: 1) It would show the president’s base of support that he is committed to building the border wall and will do anything to follow through on his promise; and 2) It would allow him to reopen the government and therefore help mitigate any further political fallout (according to RealClearPolitics polls, the president’s approval ratings have suffered during the shutdown).

 

Economic costs

The economic costs of the government shutdown are rising. We estimate that the reduction in government hours worked will dent real GDP growth by 0.1 percentage point for fourth-quarter 2018 and by 0.3–0.4 percentage point in the first quarter of this year, assuming the government reopens relatively soon – a modest but likely permanent hit to real GDP. In the past, Congress has made up the lost pay for furloughed workers, and we would expect them to do so again. However, because the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) measures real government consumption by estimating the number of hours worked by government employees, and since the lost hours of furloughed employees are not likely to be made up later, the lost GDP will likely never be regained.

These estimates don’t consider the indirect economic effects of the shutdown, including the impact on consumption or private wages and salaries. Furthermore, other factors may also exert a temporary drag on first-quarter growth.  For a number of years, U.S. real GDP growth has tended to temporarily slow in the first quarter, only to reaccelerate in the second. This “residual seasonality” has been noteworthy enough that the BEA has taken measures to correct it. However, two additional factors have emerged more recently that may similarly depress first-quarter real GDP growth. First, e-commerce retailers’ rising market share appears to be shifting consumption into months with large promotions, including fourth-quarter holiday sales events, resulting in lower spending in the first quarter. And second, the Treasury Department’s fraud prevention efforts have resulted in temporary delays in tax refunds to individuals claiming earned income and child tax credits, which has tended to push some consumption out of the first quarter and into the second.

We also note growing evidence that the Trump administration’s previous threats of increasing tariffs on Chinese imports resulted in a pickup in U.S. growth in the second half of 2018, as firms rushed to produce and stock inventories ahead of a rise in customs duties.  That trend could start to reverse in the first quarter.

 

Growth forecast: Heading toward zero in the first quarter?

Considering the various factors, our early forecast for U.S. real GDP growth is 0.5% for the first quarter, a significant deceleration from the roughly 3% pace in 2018. Although many of the contributing factors are likely temporary, and we expect full-year 2019 growth ultimately to be modestly above trend, the deceleration may weigh on markets and further deepen investors’ uncertainty about the economic outlook.

For more of our views on how policy could move markets this year, see our 2019 U.S. policy outlook.

Libby Cantrill is PIMCO’s head of public policy, and Tiffany Wilding is a PIMCO economist focusing on the U.S. Both are regular contributors to the PIMCO Blog.

--

Originally Posted on January 18, 2019

PIMCO is one of the world’s premier fixed investment managers. Since our founding in 1971 in Newport Beach, California, we have grown into a global organization with more than 2,150+ professionals united in a single purpose: creating opportunities for our clients in every environment. Our focus on excellence and our short- and long-term track record has encouraged institutions, financial advisors and millions of individual investors to entrust us with their assets. Visit PIMCO’s blog.

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This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world.

All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is intended for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. THE NEW NEUTRAL is a trademark of Pacific Investment Management Company LLC in the United States and throughout the world. ©2019, PIMCO

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from PIMCO and is being posted with PIMCO’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or PIMCO and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22419




1 2 3 4 5 2 1878

披露

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