盈透交易员睿智

观看最新视频观看视频

1 2 3 4 5 2 2161


股票

Bullseye Brief - Trader Talk


Cleaning House 

This week I stopped out three losing positions in companies I really like, and it was hard… kinda like breaking up. True, ego is inevitably part of the equation and I hate being wrong, but in this case all three stocks were trading at single digit P/Es, and I really hate walking away from low valuation. The problem is that cheap stocks can always get cheaper… the classic value trap… as opposed to catalyst-driven companies with runway for growth. I love finding businesses changing how we operate, interact and evolve. As a firm believer in the transformative impact of American Ingenuity, this is where I’m concentrating my firepower. I hope the next three stocks I sell are great growth picks accelerating through price targets. Selling a winner isn’t a break-up, it’s a Graduation.  

 

Our Week Ahead 

 

 

Monday  

  • No Change - Four Federal Reserve Governors make speeches around the country… “We’re not budging.”
  • Asian Data Dump - Unemployment, GDP and export data from Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan.
  • Call the Duke Brothers - The EU issues is monthly crops report.
  • Earnings - None

 

Tuesday

  • Adult in the Room - BoE Governor Mark Carney address Parliament on current economic conditions in the UK.
  • No Joke - Spain allows five jailed Catalan separatists to be sworn in as new members of Parliament.
  • No Bid - Notoriously volatile home sales are expected to rise 2.7% (vs -4.9% in March and +11.2% in February).
  • Earnings - AZO, HD, JWN, KSS, TJX, TOL, URBN

 

Wednesday

  • What’d They Say? - FOMC minutes are expected to confirm the Fed has no intention of doing anything. Ever.
  • Full Court Press - Five more speeches from Fed Governors… that’s nine this week.
  • Tariffs Shmariff - US-based CB Richard Ellis holds its annual real estate conference in Shanghai.
  • Earnings - ADI, LB, LOW, NTAP, SNPS, TGT

 

Thursday

  • Election #1 - The EU holds Parliamentary elections.
  • Election #2 - India votes on whether to re-elect PM Narendra Modi to a second term.
  • But Wait - Three more Fed speeches… now we are at 12.
  • When it Rains - It Pours… NOAA issues its Atlantic Hurricane forecast for the upcoming season.
  • Earnings - BBY, HPQ

 

Friday

  • Steady On - US PMI data is likely to show services and manufacturing output held steady from April to May
  • 30 Yrs - Democracy activists march in Hong Kong on the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre.
  • Early Close - Bonds stop trading at 2pm ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday. Stocks close at the regular time (4pm).
  • Earnings - None

 

--

The author holds long positions in ALB,AMLP,BABA,MO,AMAT,APTV,AVEO,BAC,OZK,BWA,CVNA,FXI,CMTA,CVS,DE,FB,FOX,F,FTAI,FCX,3606 HK, IBKR, DXJ,GDXJ,LNR CN,MSI,NOK,OBSV,QRVO,KRE,CRM, 005930 KS,SFTBY,TDOC,TOCA,TIP,WIW,TLT short, UNH,WB,WTW,ZYNE

Bullseye publishes three new, actionable stock ideas every two weeks. On the off-weeks there’s a Sunday night Roadmap for the Week Ahead and Wednesday podcast.

Founder & Author Adam Johnson traded equities and oil for 20 years at Merrill Lynch, Louis Dreyfus and ING. He also anchored two shows daily at Bloomberg Television during the financial crisis.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Bullseye and is being posted with Bullseye’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of Bullseye, and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. 


23997




宏观分析

Krane Funds Advisors LLC - China Last Night - PBOC CNY Jawboning, Trade War Market Malaise, PDD Earnings


By Brendan Ahern

 

Key News Overnight

  • The Commerce Department’s Huawei decision marks an escalation in the trade war as both sides appear to be digging in as talks stall. The irony is that Huawei is a good client for numerous US chip and technology clients. We’ll have to see if equity market weakness leads to an olive branch as a break below 2,800 on the S&P 500 could trigger a policy reversal.
  • PBOC Deputy Head Pan Gongsheng provided vocal support to CNY drawing a line in the sand at 7.

 

The Hang Seng declined -0.57%/-158 index points on moderate volume and mixed breath with 23 advancers and 24 decliners as the trade war weighed on China’s markets. Tencent weighed on the index -3.88%/-106 index points following last Wednesday’s earnings though Ping An Insurance -1.84%/-26 index points and Bank of China HK -5.08%/-17 index points. The HK stocks within the MSCI China All Shares -1.5% as Tencent weighed on Communications -2.99% despite strength of phone companies though healthcare was off -2.81% and trade war hit tech hard -2.47% though semis rallied as China will haver to create its own semiconductor industry as QCOM and Intel chips can’t be bought. Energy was the only sector in the green +1.41%. Discretionary was weighed down by autos -2.3%. Mainland investors were net buyers of HK stocks with ICBC seeing very strong buying and other banks generally bought as investors look for value.

 

Shanghai & Shenzhen fell -0.41% and -0.75% on lackluster volumes -19% from Friday and mixed breadth of 1,334 advancers and 2,266 decliners. There was little dispersion between large, mid and small. The mainland stocks within the MSCI China All Shares lost -0.8% as “white horse” stocks were weaker with staples off -2.5% on weak food/beverage/alcohol stocks, healthcare off -1.75% and discretionary -1.46%. Financials managed a small gain of +0.12% led higher by brokers. Foreign investors were sellers overnight via Connect trading in moderate volumes as -$350mm was pulled out of stocks. The irony of course is MSCI’s inclusion rebalance is next week.

 

Chinese e-commerce company Pinduoduo reported very strong Q1 revenue gains though equally impressive net income losses. The recent poor performance of strong revenue growth/net income losses (Uber, Lyft etc) may weigh on the stock which is trying to gain market share from Alibaba and JD.com.

  • Revenue +228% Year over Year (YoY) to RMB 4.545B ($677mm) versus estimate $598mm
  • Gross Merchandise Value +181% in the last 12 months RMB 557B ($83.1B) from RMB 198B YoY
  • Monthly Active Users +74% to 289mm from 166mm
  • Operating Loss RMB 2.120B ($316mm) versus RMB 253mm YoY

 

CNY 6.91

 

Bond market rally on equity weakness.

Yield on 1 Day Chinese Gov’t Bond 2.25%

Yield on 10 Year Chinese Gov’t Bond 3.30%

Yield on 10 Year China Development Bank Bond 3.74%

 

Commodities were largely lower on the Shanghai & Dalian Exchanges with Dr. Copper -0.29%

--

There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Krane Funds Advisors, LLC and is being posted with Krane Funds Advisors, LLC permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Krane Funds Advisors, LLC and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23999




软商品

The Hightower Report - Wet Weather Threatens US Corn Production - By Terry Roggensack


If the weather forecast verifies, the US and world balance sheets for corn should tighten considerably. As of May 12th, only 30% of US corn acreage was planted, compared with 59% last year at this time and a ten-year average of 63%. Plantings increased 7% from the week before, which was slowest pace for the first week of May on record. Some of the top producing states showed some major problems, with Illinois just 11% planted and gaining only 1% on the week, South Dakota 4% planted, Ohio 4% planted and North Dakota 11%. Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, North Dakota, and South Dakota together account for 30.25 million acres in intended acreage, roughly 33% of the total corn area for the US. These states had barely scratched the surface by May 12th.

The latest 7-day precipitation forecast is very wet for the Midwest. Areas in Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, North and South Dakota, and the northern half of Illinois could see 1 ½ to 5 inches of rain over the next week. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast models (through May 30th) are showing above normal precipitation as well. Normally, 93% of the crop is planted by May 31st, but this year we expect to be well short of that level.

 

The wet pattern looks to continue, with the Climate Prediction Center's 90 day outlook for June through August looking cool and wet for the Midwest. NOAA's National Center for Environmental Information said that the May 2018 through April 2019 time period for the Midwest was the wettest 12 month period in the 124 years of records. The US Drought Monitor pegged 91.16% of the US in no form of drought stage compared to 64% at the start of the year and 54% on this date last year.

Studies from agricultural universities indicate that the yield potential for corn declines if the crop is planted late. If we assume that the weather stays wet and 2.8 million acres are left unplanted (it could be a lot more) and we see a 170 bushel per acre yield, US ending stocks could drop to 1.524 billion bushels and the stocks/usage ratio to 10.4%, down from the current estimate of 2.485 billion and stocks/usage ratio at 16.9%. If so, ending stocks and stocks/usage would be the lowest they have been in six years.

We see the potential for even greater production loss. If yield falls to 167 bushels per acre, US ending stocks could drop to 1.276 billion bushels with a stocks/usage of 8.7%. The ratio has been under 8.7% only three times since the 1960/61 season, which is as far back as our records go.

 

There is certainly need for the market to build a weather premium for the growing season ahead. The Commitments of Traders reports show an excessive net short position being held by fund traders, which leaves the market vulnerable to aggressive short covering as resistance levels are taken out.

--

This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.  Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.  This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon.  The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. 

This material is from The Hightower Report and is being posted with Hightower’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or The Hightower Report and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24003




股票

Econoday Inc. - Retail Flat, Production Down But Inflation Up? - By Mark Pender


Global Economics – May 17, 2019

Mark Pender**, Editor-in-Chief, Econoday


Introduction

Concerns over a first-quarter global slowdown proved in the end to be overstated but early indications on April are no better than mixed at the very best. Whether from the US or China, good news in the latest retail sales and industrial production reports are as hard to find as special explanations are abundant. A rise in Australian unemployment gave a jolt to the Australian dollar and may be resetting expectations for easier rate policy while jumps in German consumer prices and US inflation expectations point to the opposite, that is tighter rate policy. As data for April come in, they will set a base against which the unfolding effects of higher US-Chinese tariffs can be compared.

 

The Economy

The second quarter got off to a stumbling start in the US, pulled down by an unexpectedly soft retail sales report for April where the headline was as weak as the details. Retail sales slowed 7 tenths in the month to 3.1 percent year-on-year growth. On monthly basis readings were slightly negative to flat including no change for the control group, a component used in the calculation of GDP and which points squarely to early second-quarter deceleration for US consumer spending, spending that had already decelerated sharply during the first quarter.

 

A monthly 1.1 percent decline in auto sales (signaled by the prior release of unit sales at manufacturers) was no surprise and neither was a 1.8 percent jump at gasoline stations, signaled here by the price of gas. The big surprise was a 1.3 percent drop at electronics & appliance stores that followed a 4.3 percent tumble in March. Weakness here hints at lower prices for consumer electronics and also lower spending on home improvements. Furniture sales also hint at trouble for residential investment, coming in unchanged following March's 3.1 percent decline, as did sales of building materials which fell 1.9 percent in April.

 

Total retail sales in March were revised higher to a yet larger 1.7 percentage point jump in the year-on-year rate to 3.8 percent which was a positive for the first quarter but not the second quarter. The choppy results from March to April are very likely the result of this year's April shift from early April last year to late April this year, a shift of consequence that jumbles the calendar and seasonal adjustments. There are plenty of warning signs in this report but taking March and April together does offer some comfort, pointing to a steadier and perhaps moderate rate of consumer spending.

 

To read the remainder of Simply Economics, please subscribe via Amazon Kindle or email mailto:info@econoday.com to get set-up today!

--

Click here to learn more about Econoday’s research available through IBKR Account Management

www.econoday.com

Investors who follow economic events have a strategic advantage. Making smart investment decisions is directly related to being better informed. Following economic events provides predictability of market movements. Econoday Enterprise Solutions demystifies the relationship between economic announcements and market reaction so that investors can capitalize on opportunities first.


Important Legal Notice: Econoday has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar. However, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Econoday does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.

© 1998-2019 Econoday, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Econoday Inc. and is being posted with Econoday Inc.’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/ Econoday Inc. and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23998




宏观分析

J.P. Morgan - Weekly Market Recap


The week in review

  • Retail sales declined -0.2% m/m
  • Industrial production down -0.5% m/m
  • Housing starts rose +5.7% m/m
  • Empire State mfg. at 17.8
  • Philly Fed mfg. at 16.6

 

The week ahead

  • Existing home sales
  • Manufacturing PMI (flash)
  • New home sales
  • Durable goods orders

 

Thought of the week

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalated significantly over the past two weeks, after the U.S. raised tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, and China retaliated by raising tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods. Although China exports over four times as much to the U.S. as the U.S. exports to China, it is important to put China’s position into context. This week’s chart shows how Chinese goods exports to the U.S. have evolved over the past four decades relative to a fast growing economy. Chinese exports to the U.S. peaked in 2006 at 7.3% of GDP, but have fallen since then to 3.6% of GDP. Over that same period, China’s GDP grew from just 20% of the size of U.S. GDP in 2006 to 65% by last year. As the trade dispute intensifies, it is important to keep China’s increasing economic strength in mind, as despite mounting pressure from the U.S., China is not likely to capitulate easily. If trade disagreements persist, prolonged uncertainty may deter business and consumer spending—potentially more harmful than the price increases themselves—and the U.S. has threatened to enact further tariff increases. The slowdown ahead in both U.S. and international growth will likely accelerate, possibly prompting a Fed rate cut. In this environment, investors should prepare for further global equity market volatility this year.

 

Click here to access the material on J.P. Morgan’s website.

--

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal, or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. There is no guarantee that companies that can issue dividends will declare, continue to pay, or increase dividends. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage.

JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., member of FINRA.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the marketing name for the asset management businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Those businesses include, but are not limited to, J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc., Security Capital Research & Management Incorporated and J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc. and JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc.

©JPMorgan Chase & Co., May 2019.

Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of May 20, 2019 or as of most recently available.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from J.P. Morgan and is being posted with JPMorgan’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or JPMorgan and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24002




1 2 3 4 5 2 2161

披露

我们欢迎您的反馈。如果您对IB交易员睿智有任何问题,请发送邮件到 ibti@ibkr.com.

盈透交易员睿智中提供的内容(包括文章和评论)仅作为资讯用途。发布的内容并不代表盈透证券建议您或您的客户联系独立顾问或对冲基金以期获取其服务或投资其产品,也不代表建议您联系在盈透交易员睿智发布文章或向顾问、对冲基金投资的相关人士。在盈透交易员睿智中发布文章的顾问、对冲基金或其他分析师均独立于盈透,盈透证券不会对这些顾问、对冲基金和其他人士的过往或将来表现,或其提供的信息之准确性做任何声明或担保。盈透证券不会进行“适宜性评估”来确保顾问、对冲基金或其他参与方的交易是否适合于您。

发布内容中提及的证券或其他金融产品并非适合所有投资者。发布的内容并未从您的投资目标、财务状况或需求出发,并不旨在向您推荐任何证券、金融产品或策略。进行任何投资或交易前,您应考虑该产品是否适合您的特定情况,如有需要,请咨询相关人士获取专业的建议。过往业绩并不代表将来表现。

盈透或其分支机构的雇员所发布的任何信息均基于公认的真实可信的信息。然而,盈透或其分支机构无法保证信息的完整性、准确性和适当性。盈透不对任何金融产品其过去或将来的表现作出任何声明或担保。交易员睿智中发布的内容并不代表盈透认为任何特定金融产品或交易策略适合您。