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宏观分析

Interactive Brokers - Brief Market Commentary with Steve Sosnick - October 19, 2018


Steve Sosnick, Chief Options Strategist, gives brief market commentary for October 19.

 

Produced on October 19, 2018

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


21056




期货

Blue Line Futures - Morning Express


E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2772.25, down 44.00

Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks were tagged severely yesterday. In hindsight, Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes left investors with a sour taste and this coupled with another drubbing in China set the table for any bit of uncertain news to be the straw that broke the camel’s back; investors were looking for a reason to sell. ECB President Draghi was perceived to have taken a harder-line stance on Italy’s budget calling out the frivolous spending and violation of EU rules as having no guarantee of bringing prosperity to the country. He added that it risks growth to the region. At the same time Treasury Secretary Mnuchin pulled the U.S. out of ‘Davos in the Desert’. First, we have seen this with Cyprus and then Greece, the EU is not going to hang Italy out to dry. Was the market really worried, or looking for a reason to sell? Additionally, it should not come as a surprise that the U.S. pulled out of the Saudi-led summit. JP Morgan and the IMF both canceled their plans earlier in the week and Goldman Sachs had no plans of being involved. The S&P lost as much as 2.1% and the NQ 3% with red across the board. Netflix gave up all earnings gains but more importantly, the XLF Financial ETF failed at the 27.21 level we have referred to all week and finished down 1.63%. Yesterday’s didn’t finish as bad though, below major three-star support in the S&P, our next key support level held perfectly, and markets pared losses into the close. Sentiment seems to be trying to turn a corner this morning and the feeling is that all weak hands were shaken out yesterday. China opened lower last night, GDP and Industrial Production missed expectations, but the Shanghai Composite has swung from -1.5% to +2.58% on a state-led confidence boost; verbiage and physical buying. Adding to a potential tailwind this morning are reports that President Trump and China’s President Xi will hold trade talks at the G20 Summit on November 29th. Let’s also not forget that today is option expiration and the market will surely like to find a nice round number; 2800.

On the earnings front, Honeywell beat and is up 3.2%. Procter & Gamble, Schlumberger and others are also due. Dallas Fed President Kaplan is scheduled to speak at 8:00 am CT, Existing Home Sales are due at 9:00 am and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks at 11:00 am.

Technicals: Price action is firming into the morning and regaining a crucial level at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Crude Oil (December)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 68.71, down 0.99

Fundamentals: Crude Oil is battling into the green this morning and finding support from a better global risk sentiment. China started the night on weak footing after GDP and Industrial Production both missed expectations but comments and action from regulators quickly turned sentiment and this has acted as a tailwind for commodity prices. Data also showed that China’s refinery throughput rose to a record of 12.49 mbpd in September. China is the world’s largest importer of Crude and this is a sign of strong demand coming out of the summer loll season. Heading into the weekend, geopolitical concerns due to the disappearance and death of the journalist should invite buyers to the market. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that the U.S. is pulling out of ‘Davos in the Desert’ and today President Trump said there will be “severe consequences” if the death and torture are confirmed after the conclusion of their investigation.

Technicals: Yesterday, our major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Gold (December)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1230.1, up 2.7

Fundamentals: Gold has held very firm despite U.S. Dollar strength and there seems to be a combination of geopolitical premium entering the market just as shorts are trickling out of positions. The Dollar Index is paring overnight gains and the Chinese Yuan is backing off overnight lows against the Dollar, both trends could prove to be powerful tailwinds for Gold if they continue in such a direction into the weekend given the strong technical landscape. Dallas Fed President Kaplan is scheduled to speak at 8:00 am CT, Existing Home Sales are due at 9:00 am and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks at 11:00 am.

Technicals: Gold nudged a close above the 1230 pivot yesterday and we said this would ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21048




宏观分析

Interactive Brokers - Asia-Pacific Calendar: The Week Ahead


Interactive Brokers senior market analyst Steven Levine provides some highlights for what to look for in the Asia-Pacific region in the week beginning October 22. Experience the IBKR Platform! Use our powerful trading platform to begin trading a simulated account for free and without commitment.

Click here to start your free trial today:https://gdcdyn.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=1286

Produced on October 17, 2018

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21034




股票

BlackRock - Earnings Are Not Enough: Stocks Need Easy Credit


Credit markets are still relatively supportive of stocks, but at the margins, less so. Russ discusses the implications.

As the recent equity meltdown demonstrated, sometime even stellar earnings are not enough. While U.S. stocks are still having a pretty decent year, it would be an even better one if not for the fact that price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples have contracted (see Chart 1). Whether they rise again (unlikely), stay at current levels or fall will largely be determined by credit markets and broader financial market conditions.

 

Last May, I suggested that despite rising rates and a stronger dollar, financial conditions remained easy, or at least enough to support stocks. Since then, the U.S. equity market has advanced, albeit a lot less then week ago. Today the situation looks similar, albeit not as supportive. While financial conditions remain accommodative, they’re becoming less so. Consider the following:

  1. A higher dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) is 4% above the May low and nearly 9% above the February bottom.
  2. A big backup in yield. Year-to-date, both long-term and short-term rates have risen significantly, with 2 year and 10 year Treasury yields up 100 basis points (bps, or one percentage point) and 85 bps respectively. The recent backup in rates is the largest since the second half of 2016.

A stronger dollar and higher rates are causing a tightening of financial market conditions. One proxy, the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (GSFC), has tightened by about a quarter point since mid-September and by a full point since late January. Tighter financial conditions help explain the rise in volatility. Historically, a one point change in the GSFC Index has been associated with a 3.5 point rise in the VIX.

 

Credit markets hold the key

However, up until this week, volatility had risen but it remained well below the long-term average. What kept things from getting worse? Credit market conditions remain remarkably, almost surreally benign. High yield spreads are below where they started the year and nearly 200 bps below the long-term average. In other words, the premium investors’ demand for holding riskier bonds is close to an historic low.

Whether or not credit conditions remain benign is critical for stocks. Wider spreads would exacerbate what has so far been a mild tightening of financial conditions.  This is important for several reasons, not the least of which is that in the post-crisis environment tighter financial conditions and higher volatility have correlated with lower equity multiples.

As discussed in previous blogs, multiples have been lower when volatility has been elevated. For example, a VIX at 11, the 2017 average, would imply a trailing P/E ratio of approximately 20. However, if the VIX were to rise to around 20, a level consistent with modestly tighter financial market conditions, fair value for the S&P 500 would drop to approximately 16.5.

 

The bottom line

Any dislocation in credit markets will accelerate what has been, up until now, a fairly modest tightening of financial market conditions. Under that scenario, volatility is likely to climb further. Should volatility rise back towards its long-term average, even strong earnings growth may not be enough to offset lower multiples.

 

Russ Koesterich, CFA, is Portfolio Manager for BlackRock’s Global Allocation team and is a regular contributor to The Blog.

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Originally Posted on October 16, 2018

Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.

©2018 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

USR1018U-628085-1952775

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from BlackRock and is being posted with BlackRock’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or BlackRock and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. 

 


21035




固定收益

Morningstar - A Safe Harbor For Annuities Could Help Retirement Savers - By Aron Szapiro


Policy changes pending in Congress may make lifetime income more accessible

A last-minute change to a bill that recently passed the U.S. House could improve how Americans save for, and spend in, retirement.

But you’d never know that by its name.

The amendment is called the “Fiduciary Safe Harbor for Selection of Lifetime Income Provider.” The idea has garnered rare bipartisan support in the Senate. It was added to H.R. 6757, known as the “Family Savings Act of 2018,” before the bill cleared the House last month.

The Act has several tax provisions that aren’t likely to find enough Senate support, but other provisions—including letting small employers band together to offer retirement plans—have now found support in the House and Senate. So, we might just see a policy change that makes it easier for Americans to access lifetime income options by making it easier for 401(k) plans to offer annuities.

 

How a safe harbor for annuities could help retirement savers—and retirees

Theoretically, at least, many retirees should annuitize at least a portion of their retirement savings. Annuities protect retirees from investment risk and longevity risk, or the possibility that they might outlive their savings.

Of course, in practice, retirees may not want to give up so much liquidity. They may wish to leave their heirs a bequest, and Social Security provides an inflation adjusted annuity that can offer quite high levels of income replacement to many working-class retirees, while many others still have some income from traditional defined benefit plans.

Nonetheless, annuities are a potentially useful way to convert savings into lifetime income. In fact, Morningstar Investment Management LLC’s David Blanchett has demonstrated in his research that introducing annuities as part of defined-contribution plan default options could help more workers prepare to transition from retirement savers to retirement spenders. The U.S. also lags other countries in promoting annuities, as I’ve argued in the past.

 

What policymakers could do to change regulations

So, if annuities are valuable, why do so few 401(k) plans offer them as an option?

In 2016, the U.S. Government Accountability Office found that just a handful of plans offered annuities because of concerns about fiduciary liability. In short, the employers that offer retirement plans told the government auditors that current regulations require them to ensure an insurer will be financially secure enough to pay for future benefits but gives them no guidance on how to reasonably reach that conclusion. Since workers aren’t demanding annuities, employers figure it’s not worth the risk that an insurance company might have financial trouble in the future and so they don’t offer them.

What could policymakers do? They could reform regulations for a safe harbor for plans sponsors offering annuities by adding detailed criteria. That way, plan sponsors can assess an annuity provider’s long-term health with some assurance that they will have met their fiduciary obligations. In fact, the Government Accountability Office recommended that the Department of Labor write such regulations back in 2016. But as of now, the agency has only said it plans to tackle this eventually in its regulatory agenda and hasn’t offered a specific timeline.

 

Options and the prognosis for change

This lack of action from the Department of Labor brings us back to the Family Savings Act.

The Act, combined with legislation pending in the Senate that has similar provisions for a safe harbor for selecting annuity providers, there seems to be a real possibility that Congress will set such detailed criteria. The bills have very specific criteria for plan sponsors to review to ensure that annuity providers are fiscally sound. However, we‘re running out of time this legislative session.

Still, this is an idea that policymakers across both aisles, both houses of Congress, and in the executive branch want to implement. The only question is whether they want to do it badly enough to get it done.

 

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Originally Posted on Oct 18, 2018

Morningstar provides a constant source for investment ideas with our comprehensive analyst reports on equities, ETFs, and credit ratings from more than 100 analysts. U.S. Interactive Brokers clients can sign up for a free trial of these reports in Account Management.

 

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal, or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Morningstar and is being posted with Morningstar's permission. The information provided in this material is from Morningstar and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21037




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披露

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